With only two magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded by the USGS in 2026 so far—a M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22 and the recent M7.5 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga on March 24—traders price a below-average year, centering market-implied odds on 11–13 (30.5%) and 14–16 (25.5%). This reflects the historical baseline of roughly 16 M7+ events annually since 1900, per USGS long-term catalogs, amid high year-to-year variability driven by stochastic seismic processes along major fault systems like subduction zones. The slow Q1 pace trails the expected ~4, but clustering in the Pacific Ring of Fire could accelerate activity; ongoing USGS global monitoring provides daily updates, with resolution based on final moment magnitude assignments for the full year.