Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 26–28°C highs for Shenzhen on March 29, with 27°C leading at 27.5% implied probability, reflecting the narrow spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peak temperatures around 27°C amid light southerly winds and moderate humidity from the South China Sea. Recent observations over the past week show daytime maxima consistently 25–28°C, elevated above March climatological averages of 24°C due to warm air advection and urban heat island amplification in the densely built city. Key differentiators include potential afternoon convective clouds capping 28°C (19%) versus sustained solar insolation pushing toward 27°C, while stronger sea breezes could trim to 26°C (24.5%); below 25°C remains unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. China Meteorological Administration updates due within 24 hours may sharpen this outlook.