Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest high of 50-51°F at 28% implied probability for NYC on March 29, closely trailed by 48-49°F (20.5%) and 47°F or cooler (19.5%), reflecting National Weather Service guidance for partly sunny skies with highs near 51°F amid a weak cold front's lingering influence. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and European models show a tight spread of 48-52°F, driven by post-frontal cooling, light northwest winds, and variable cloud cover introducing uncertainty—differentiating outcomes hinges on exact timing of diurnal heating and any unexpected marine layer effects. Historical late-March averages hover around 52°F, but climatological variability and model divergences keep probabilities balanced; watch evening updates from NOAA for refined guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in NYC on March 29?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 29?
50-51°F 29%
48-49°F 21%
47°F or below 20%
52-53°F 19%
47°F or below
20%
48-49°F
21%
50-51°F
29%
52-53°F
19%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66°F or higher
1%
50-51°F 29%
48-49°F 21%
47°F or below 20%
52-53°F 19%
47°F or below
20%
48-49°F
21%
50-51°F
29%
52-53°F
19%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest high of 50-51°F at 28% implied probability for NYC on March 29, closely trailed by 48-49°F (20.5%) and 47°F or cooler (19.5%), reflecting National Weather Service guidance for partly sunny skies with highs near 51°F amid a weak cold front's lingering influence. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and European models show a tight spread of 48-52°F, driven by post-frontal cooling, light northwest winds, and variable cloud cover introducing uncertainty—differentiating outcomes hinges on exact timing of diurnal heating and any unexpected marine layer effects. Historical late-March averages hover around 52°F, but climatological variability and model divergences keep probabilities balanced; watch evening updates from NOAA for refined guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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