Recent forecast models from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global systems like GFS and ECMWF project a high near 28-30°C in Buenos Aires on March 28, fueled by a persistent subtropical ridge and northerly winds advecting warm, humid air masses typical of late southern hemisphere summer. This drives the 65.5% market-implied probability for 27°C or higher, with trader consensus aligning 26°C at 19.5% as traders hedge against minor model divergences. Recent observations show preceding days averaging 26-28°C amid low cloud cover, elevating odds above historical March peaks around 27°C, though short-term updates could shift probabilities by 5-10% before resolution using official airport measurements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 28?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 28?
27°C or higher 66%
26°C 20%
25°C 9%
24°C 5%
17°C or below
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
2%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C
5%
25°C
9%
26°C
20%
27°C or higher
66%
27°C or higher 66%
26°C 20%
25°C 9%
24°C 5%
17°C or below
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
2%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C
5%
25°C
9%
26°C
20%
27°C or higher
66%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global systems like GFS and ECMWF project a high near 28-30°C in Buenos Aires on March 28, fueled by a persistent subtropical ridge and northerly winds advecting warm, humid air masses typical of late southern hemisphere summer. This drives the 65.5% market-implied probability for 27°C or higher, with trader consensus aligning 26°C at 19.5% as traders hedge against minor model divergences. Recent observations show preceding days averaging 26-28°C amid low cloud cover, elevating odds above historical March peaks around 27°C, though short-term updates could shift probabilities by 5-10% before resolution using official airport measurements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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