MetService's latest forecast for Wellington, New Zealand, on March 25 points to a high near 20°C under fine spells with increasing cloud, driving trader consensus toward that outcome at 23% implied probability, closely trailed by 19°C and 18°C. This tight clustering reflects model ensemble spread from ECMWF and GFS, where northerly airflow advection could push temperatures to 21°C or higher if high pressure holds, but southerly sea breezes—common in Wellington's coastal microclimate—often cap peaks at 18-19°C via evaporative cooling. Historical March maxima average 20.1°C with a standard deviation of 2.5°C, amplifying uncertainty amid transitioning La Niña patterns; watch afternoon updates for frontal timing shifts.