Trader consensus heavily favors a 13°C high in London on March 22, driven by the latest Met Office and ECMWF model runs projecting mild conditions under a high-pressure ridge with southerly winds advecting Atlantic air. These forecasts cluster around 12-14°C, aligning with the market's top probabilities, as verified observations from Heathrow (London's official recording site) show recent March days averaging 11-13°C amid seasonal variability. Recent developments include a slight warming trend in GFS updates over the past 48 hours, boosting 13°C and 14°C odds while capping extremes; historical data confirms March maxima rarely exceed 15°C without blocking highs, positioning lower outcomes as tail risks amid model ensemble spreads of ±2°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月22日のロンドンの最高気温は?
3月22日のロンドンの最高気温は?
13°C 53%
12℃ 27.7%
14℃ 20%
15°C 2.2%
$101,263 Vol.
$101,263 Vol.
7°C以下
<1%
8℃
<1%
9℃
<1%
10℃
<1%
11°C
2%
12℃
28%
13°C
53%
14℃
20%
15°C
2%
16℃
1%
17°C以上
<1%
13°C 53%
12℃ 27.7%
14℃ 20%
15°C 2.2%
$101,263 Vol.
$101,263 Vol.
7°C以下
<1%
8℃
<1%
9℃
<1%
10℃
<1%
11°C
2%
12℃
28%
13°C
53%
14℃
20%
15°C
2%
16℃
1%
17°C以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 18, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a 13°C high in London on March 22, driven by the latest Met Office and ECMWF model runs projecting mild conditions under a high-pressure ridge with southerly winds advecting Atlantic air. These forecasts cluster around 12-14°C, aligning with the market's top probabilities, as verified observations from Heathrow (London's official recording site) show recent March days averaging 11-13°C amid seasonal variability. Recent developments include a slight warming trend in GFS updates over the past 48 hours, boosting 13°C and 14°C odds while capping extremes; historical data confirms March maxima rarely exceed 15°C without blocking highs, positioning lower outcomes as tail risks amid model ensemble spreads of ±2°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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