Trader sentiment clusters around 14-16°C for London's highest temperature on March 24, with 15°C leading at 34% implied probability, driven by the latest UK Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima in that range amid a building high-pressure ridge over southern England. Differentiating factors include model spread: ECMWF runs favor 15-16°C under clearer skies and southerly winds advecting milder Atlantic air, while GFS ensembles tilt cooler toward 14°C with persistent cloud cover and frontal influences. Historical March 24 averages near 12°C underscore the above-normal outlook, but uncertainty in jet stream positioning keeps 14°C competitive at 22.5%, ahead of Monday's 12Z forecast updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in London on March 24?
Highest temperature in London on March 24?
15°C 34%
16°C 27%
14°C 23%
13°C 9%
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
9%
14°C
23%
15°C
34%
16°C
27%
17°C
6%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 34%
16°C 27%
14°C 23%
13°C 9%
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
9%
14°C
23%
15°C
34%
16°C
27%
17°C
6%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around 14-16°C for London's highest temperature on March 24, with 15°C leading at 34% implied probability, driven by the latest UK Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima in that range amid a building high-pressure ridge over southern England. Differentiating factors include model spread: ECMWF runs favor 15-16°C under clearer skies and southerly winds advecting milder Atlantic air, while GFS ensembles tilt cooler toward 14°C with persistent cloud cover and frontal influences. Historical March 24 averages near 12°C underscore the above-normal outlook, but uncertainty in jet stream positioning keeps 14°C competitive at 22.5%, ahead of Monday's 12Z forecast updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問