Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward highs of 82-85°F in Houston on March 25, driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 83-84°F under a persistent upper-level ridge fostering adiabatic warming and light southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico. Differentiating the razor-thin 82-83°F (19%) and 84-85°F (18.5%) leaders are subtle model divergences: GFS runs slightly warmer with stronger subsidence suppressing clouds, while EURO accounts for potential afternoon sea-breeze moderation near 82°F. Lower odds for 78-79°F reflect fading cool-front risks per NWS updates, with historical late-March averages around 76°F underscoring this warm anomaly amid dry antecedent conditions. Key watch: 18Z model refresh for resolution tweaks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Houston on March 25?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 25?
82-83°F 19%
84-85°F 19%
78-79°F 14%
76-77°F 11%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
10%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
9%
94°F or higher
2%
82-83°F 19%
84-85°F 19%
78-79°F 14%
76-77°F 11%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
10%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
9%
94°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 21, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward highs of 82-85°F in Houston on March 25, driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 83-84°F under a persistent upper-level ridge fostering adiabatic warming and light southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico. Differentiating the razor-thin 82-83°F (19%) and 84-85°F (18.5%) leaders are subtle model divergences: GFS runs slightly warmer with stronger subsidence suppressing clouds, while EURO accounts for potential afternoon sea-breeze moderation near 82°F. Lower odds for 78-79°F reflect fading cool-front risks per NWS updates, with historical late-March averages around 76°F underscoring this warm anomaly amid dry antecedent conditions. Key watch: 18Z model refresh for resolution tweaks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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