Trader consensus on Polymarket pins 11°C as the leading highest temperature outcome for Ankara on March 21, with a 29% implied probability, reflecting ensemble forecast clusters from ECMWF and GFS models around 10-12°C amid notable spread. High uncertainty stems from model divergence in short-range predictions, driven by northerly winds advecting cool continental air masses over central Anatolia, reducing adiabatic warming. Historical March averages hover near 13°C, but current synoptic setup—a northeast blocking high and trailing lows—caps solar insolation via cloudiness. Pivotal variables include wind shear, boundary layer mixing, and potential precipitation muting peak heating; final observations from Esenboğa Airport will resolve, with traders eyeing Turkish MGM updates for late shifts.