Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 28°C or below in Lucknow on March 21 (72.5% implied probability), driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts predicting a maximum of 27-28°C under overcast skies from a lingering western disturbance—a cyclonic circulation over northwest India bringing cooler air, clouds, and light rain. Recent observations confirm the trend, with Lucknow's highs dipping to 25-27°C over the past week versus the typical late-March average of 30-32°C, as cold northerly winds suppress daytime heating. Ensemble weather models from GFS and ECMWF align on subdued temperatures below seasonal norms, with minimal risk of heat buildup before the pre-monsoon surge; traders eye IMD's evening update for final confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 21?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 21?
28°C or below 80%
29°C 21%
30°C 4%
31°C 4.0%
28°C or below
73%
29°C
21%
30°C
8%
31°C
8%
32°C
7%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
1%
28°C or below 80%
29°C 21%
30°C 4%
31°C 4.0%
28°C or below
73%
29°C
21%
30°C
8%
31°C
8%
32°C
7%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 28°C or below in Lucknow on March 21 (72.5% implied probability), driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts predicting a maximum of 27-28°C under overcast skies from a lingering western disturbance—a cyclonic circulation over northwest India bringing cooler air, clouds, and light rain. Recent observations confirm the trend, with Lucknow's highs dipping to 25-27°C over the past week versus the typical late-March average of 30-32°C, as cold northerly winds suppress daytime heating. Ensemble weather models from GFS and ECMWF align on subdued temperatures below seasonal norms, with minimal risk of heat buildup before the pre-monsoon surge; traders eye IMD's evening update for final confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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