Traders heavily favor 32°C or below (98.4% implied probability) for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 20, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting daytime highs of 30-32°C under partly cloudy skies and moderating northerly winds from recent western disturbances. Historical March data from IMD stations shows average maxima around 31.5°C, with this week's observed highs capped at 29-31°C amid cool air masses, aligning with ensemble weather models like GFS and ECMWF that show low variance. Realistic challenges include an abrupt high-pressure ridge causing prolonged sunshine and adiabatic warming to 34-35°C, though upper-level moisture and cloud cover make this unlikely per current soundings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 20?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 20?
32℃以下 98.4%
33℃ <1%
35°C <1%
34℃ <1%
$46,573 Vol.
$46,573 Vol.
32℃以下
98%
33℃
1%
34℃
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
32℃以下 98.4%
33℃ <1%
35°C <1%
34℃ <1%
$46,573 Vol.
$46,573 Vol.
32℃以下
98%
33℃
1%
34℃
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders heavily favor 32°C or below (98.4% implied probability) for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 20, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting daytime highs of 30-32°C under partly cloudy skies and moderating northerly winds from recent western disturbances. Historical March data from IMD stations shows average maxima around 31.5°C, with this week's observed highs capped at 29-31°C amid cool air masses, aligning with ensemble weather models like GFS and ECMWF that show low variance. Realistic challenges include an abrupt high-pressure ridge causing prolonged sunshine and adiabatic warming to 34-35°C, though upper-level moisture and cloud cover make this unlikely per current soundings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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