Traders overwhelmingly back a high of 12°C or below in Toronto on March 22 (99.5% implied probability), driven by Environment Canada's official forecast of just 3°C amid an arctic air outbreak, corroborated by ensemble models from global weather centers showing persistent cold anomalies. Historical March data averages 6°C highs, but current upper-air patterns—a deep trough over eastern North America—lock in below-freezing potential with flurries. This positioning aligns with verified observations of recent snowfall and subzero nights. Realistic challenges include a sudden jet stream ridge amplifying southern warmth, though low-probability model outliers peg this below 1%, as synoptic evolution favors chill.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
12°C or below 99.4%
14°C <1%
16°C <1%
13°C <1%
$108,508 Vol.
$108,508 Vol.
12°C or below
99%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
12°C or below 99.4%
14°C <1%
16°C <1%
13°C <1%
$108,508 Vol.
$108,508 Vol.
12°C or below
99%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly back a high of 12°C or below in Toronto on March 22 (99.5% implied probability), driven by Environment Canada's official forecast of just 3°C amid an arctic air outbreak, corroborated by ensemble models from global weather centers showing persistent cold anomalies. Historical March data averages 6°C highs, but current upper-air patterns—a deep trough over eastern North America—lock in below-freezing potential with flurries. This positioning aligns with verified observations of recent snowfall and subzero nights. Realistic challenges include a sudden jet stream ridge amplifying southern warmth, though low-probability model outliers peg this below 1%, as synoptic evolution favors chill.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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