Trader consensus heavily favors a high temperature of 63°F or below in Chicago on March 22 (87.5% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast predicting a daytime maximum around 52°F amid a persistent cool air mass from a recent Arctic front. Ensemble models like the GFS and European ECMWF show tight clustering below 60°F, reflecting upper-level troughing suppressing warmth, consistent with March climatology where average highs hover near 45°F at O'Hare International Airport, the market's resolution source. Recent observations of overnight lows in the upper 20s and light winds further anchor expectations, with minimal upside risk from cloud cover limiting any diurnal heating.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
63°F or below 88%
64-65°F 5.8%
66-67°F 1.8%
68-69°F 1.5%
63°F or below
88%
64-65°F
6%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
63°F or below 88%
64-65°F 5.8%
66-67°F 1.8%
68-69°F 1.5%
63°F or below
88%
64-65°F
6%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a high temperature of 63°F or below in Chicago on March 22 (87.5% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast predicting a daytime maximum around 52°F amid a persistent cool air mass from a recent Arctic front. Ensemble models like the GFS and European ECMWF show tight clustering below 60°F, reflecting upper-level troughing suppressing warmth, consistent with March climatology where average highs hover near 45°F at O'Hare International Airport, the market's resolution source. Recent observations of overnight lows in the upper 20s and light winds further anchor expectations, with minimal upside risk from cloud cover limiting any diurnal heating.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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