Traders price a 48.5% implied probability for Toronto's highest temperature reaching 10°C or higher on March 29, driven by the latest Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) forecasts showing a daytime high near 10°C under a high-pressure ridge fostering mild conditions 4–6°C above the seasonal March average of 6°C. Recent Global Ensemble Model (GEM) and GFS runs over the past 48 hours have trended warmer, reflecting southerly flow from a building upper-level ridge over eastern North America, boosting confidence in the upper single digits while assigning 20.5% to exactly 9°C amid lingering uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness or weak frontal influences. Historical late-March variability in Toronto supports the tight clustering around 8–10°C, with new 00Z model updates expected overnight potentially shifting these odds further.