Trader consensus on Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 reflects high uncertainty in short-range weather models, with probabilities clustered around 13–17°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble outputs showing a range of 12–18°C. Recent 12Z model runs indicate a weak low-pressure trough lingering over the eastern Mediterranean, capping highs near 13°C in cooler solutions, while warmer ridge-building aloft in some members pushes toward 16–17°C amid southerly flows. Historical March 31 averages hover at 13–14°C, aligning with the slight edge to 13°C, but diurnally variable cloud cover and sea-breeze effects add variability. Watch 00Z updates tonight for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月31日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
3月31日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
13℃ 31%
17℃ 25%
16℃ 24%
12°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
8℃以下
7%
9℃
7%
10℃
9%
11°C
10%
12°C
15%
13℃
31%
14℃
14%
15℃
15%
16℃
24%
17℃
25%
18℃以上
14%
13℃ 31%
17℃ 25%
16℃ 24%
12°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
8℃以下
$5 Vol.
7%
9℃
$0 Vol.
7%
10℃
$0 Vol.
9%
11°C
$0 Vol.
10%
12°C
$0 Vol.
15%
13℃
$0 Vol.
31%
14℃
$0 Vol.
14%
15℃
$0 Vol.
15%
16℃
$0 Vol.
24%
17℃
$0 Vol.
25%
18℃以上
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 reflects high uncertainty in short-range weather models, with probabilities clustered around 13–17°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble outputs showing a range of 12–18°C. Recent 12Z model runs indicate a weak low-pressure trough lingering over the eastern Mediterranean, capping highs near 13°C in cooler solutions, while warmer ridge-building aloft in some members pushes toward 16–17°C amid southerly flows. Historical March 31 averages hover at 13–14°C, aligning with the slight edge to 13°C, but diurnally variable cloud cover and sea-breeze effects add variability. Watch 00Z updates tonight for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
音量
$5終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 reflects high uncertainty in short-range weather models, with probabilities clustered around 13–17°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble outputs showing a range of 12–18°C. Recent 12Z model runs indicate a weak low-pressure trough lingering over the eastern Mediterranean, capping highs near 13°C in cooler solutions, while warmer ridge-building aloft in some members pushes toward 16–17°C amid southerly flows. Historical March 31 averages hover at 13–14°C, aligning with the slight edge to 13°C, but diurnally variable cloud cover and sea-breeze effects add variability. Watch 00Z updates tonight for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$5終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 reflects high uncertainty in short-range weather models, with probabilities clustered around 13–17°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble outputs showing a range of 12–18°C. Recent 12Z model runs indicate a weak low-pressure trough lingering over the eastern Mediterranean, capping highs near 13°C in cooler solutions, while warmer ridge-building aloft in some members pushes toward 16–17°C amid southerly flows. Historical March 31 averages hover at 13–14°C, aligning with the slight edge to 13°C, but diurnally variable cloud cover and sea-breeze effects add variability. Watch 00Z updates tonight for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
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