Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Mar 29

Apr 5

Mar 29

Apr 5

0 49%

1 33%

2 12%

5 9.9%

Polymarket
NEW

0 49%

1 33%

2 12%

5 9.9%

Polymarket
NEW

0

$666 Vol.

49%

1

$332 Vol.

33%

2

$454 Vol.

12%

3

$167 Vol.

10%

4

$141 Vol.

5%

5

$311 Vol.

10%

>5

$175 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes at 48.5% implied probability for March 30–April 5, reflecting USGS historical global rates of roughly one such event per week amid stable seismicity governed by plate tectonics and Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution. Recent USGS data shows elevated activity with four M6.5+ quakes—6.6 South Shetland Islands (March 20), 6.6 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (March 21), 7.5 Tonga (March 24), and 6.5 Japan (March 26)—clustered along Pacific subduction zones, yet no ongoing aftershock sequences or seismic swarms signal continuation into next week. Current global activity remains low per monitoring reports, supporting low-count outcomes while >5 (32.3%) captures tail risk from rare bursts; watch USGS catalog for real-time updates resolving the market.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes at 48.5% implied probability for March 30–April 5, reflecting USGS historical global rates of roughly one such event per week amid stable seismicity governed by plate tectonics and Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution. Recent USGS data shows elevated activity with four M6.5+ quakes—6.6 South Shetland Islands (March 20), 6.6 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (March 21), 7.5 Tonga (March 24), and 6.5 Japan (March 26)—clustered along Pacific subduction zones, yet no ongoing aftershock sequences or seismic swarms signal continuation into next week. Current global activity remains low per monitoring reports, supporting low-count outcomes while >5 (32.3%) captures tail risk from rare bursts; watch USGS catalog for real-time updates resolving the market.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes at 48.5% implied probability for March 30–April 5, reflecting USGS historical global rates of roughly one such event per week amid stable seismicity governed by plate tectonics and Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution. Recent USGS data shows elevated activity with four M6.5+ quakes—6.6 South Shetland Islands (March 20), 6.6 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (March 21), 7.5 Tonga (March 24), and 6.5 Japan (March 26)—clustered along Pacific subduction zones, yet no ongoing aftershock sequences or seismic swarms signal continuation into next week. Current global activity remains low per monitoring reports, supporting low-count outcomes while >5 (32.3%) captures tail risk from rare bursts; watch USGS catalog for real-time updates resolving the market.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes at 48.5% implied probability for March 30–April 5, reflecting USGS historical global rates of roughly one such event per week amid stable seismicity governed by plate tectonics and Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution. Recent USGS data shows elevated activity with four M6.5+ quakes—6.6 South Shetland Islands (March 20), 6.6 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (March 21), 7.5 Tonga (March 24), and 6.5 Japan (March 26)—clustered along Pacific subduction zones, yet no ongoing aftershock sequences or seismic swarms signal continuation into next week. Current global activity remains low per monitoring reports, supporting low-count outcomes while >5 (32.3%) captures tail risk from rare bursts; watch USGS catalog for real-time updates resolving the market.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「0」で49%、次いで「1」が33%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、49¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に49%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 27, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?」の現在のフロントランナーは「0」で49%であり、市場がこの結果に49%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1」で33%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。