Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $2 trillion at 62.5% implied probability, propelled by the company's confidential SEC filing in early April 2026 and reports targeting a June listing at that blockbuster valuation. Starlink's explosive growth to 10 million subscribers, now driving the majority of revenue projected near $20 billion annually, underpins this optimism amid rapid satellite constellation expansion and high-margin broadband services. Recent secondary share sales valuing SpaceX above $1.5 trillion reinforced upward momentum, while Starship reusability milestones bolster long-term narrative. Lower bins like 1.8T–2.0T at 10% capture volatility risks highlighted by analysts like Cathie Wood, with an early June roadshow as the pivotal near-term catalyst that could solidify or shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.0兆ドル以上 63%
1.8兆~2.0兆 10%
1.6兆~1.8兆ドル 8.6%
1.4兆~1.6兆ドル 5.5%
$943,972 Vol.
$943,972 Vol.
2028年以前に上場なし
2%
1兆ドル未満
4%
1.0兆ドル~1.2兆ドル
2%
1.2兆~1.4兆ドル
3%
1.4兆~1.6兆ドル
6%
1.6兆~1.8兆ドル
9%
1.8兆~2.0兆
10%
2.0兆ドル以上
63%
2.0兆ドル以上 63%
1.8兆~2.0兆 10%
1.6兆~1.8兆ドル 8.6%
1.4兆~1.6兆ドル 5.5%
$943,972 Vol.
$943,972 Vol.
2028年以前に上場なし
2%
1兆ドル未満
4%
1.0兆ドル~1.2兆ドル
2%
1.2兆~1.4兆ドル
3%
1.4兆~1.6兆ドル
6%
1.6兆~1.8兆ドル
9%
1.8兆~2.0兆
10%
2.0兆ドル以上
63%
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日: Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $2 trillion at 62.5% implied probability, propelled by the company's confidential SEC filing in early April 2026 and reports targeting a June listing at that blockbuster valuation. Starlink's explosive growth to 10 million subscribers, now driving the majority of revenue projected near $20 billion annually, underpins this optimism amid rapid satellite constellation expansion and high-margin broadband services. Recent secondary share sales valuing SpaceX above $1.5 trillion reinforced upward momentum, while Starship reusability milestones bolster long-term narrative. Lower bins like 1.8T–2.0T at 10% capture volatility risks highlighted by analysts like Cathie Wood, with an early June roadshow as the pivotal near-term catalyst that could solidify or shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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