Traders assign a 99.2% probability against an official Tesla-xAI merger announcement by June 30 because xAI became a wholly owned SpaceX subsidiary in February 2026 following its own acquisition of X, rerouting Tesla’s prior $2 billion investment into SpaceX equity instead. Elon Musk has explicitly ruled out a direct Tesla-xAI combination in prior statements, citing structural complexities for the public automaker, while recent focus centers on SpaceX’s planned IPO rather than any Tesla tie-up. With just two weeks remaining and no regulatory filings, shareholder votes, or credible leaks indicating imminent action, the market reflects strong consensus on the timeline barrier. A surprise last-minute deal remains theoretically possible but would require overcoming entrenched corporate separation and Musk’s stated preferences.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$112,008 Vol.
$112,008 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$112,008 Vol.
$112,008 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% probability against an official Tesla-xAI merger announcement by June 30 because xAI became a wholly owned SpaceX subsidiary in February 2026 following its own acquisition of X, rerouting Tesla’s prior $2 billion investment into SpaceX equity instead. Elon Musk has explicitly ruled out a direct Tesla-xAI combination in prior statements, citing structural complexities for the public automaker, while recent focus centers on SpaceX’s planned IPO rather than any Tesla tie-up. With just two weeks remaining and no regulatory filings, shareholder votes, or credible leaks indicating imminent action, the market reflects strong consensus on the timeline barrier. A surprise last-minute deal remains theoretically possible but would require overcoming entrenched corporate separation and Musk’s stated preferences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
音量
$112,008終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% probability against an official Tesla-xAI merger announcement by June 30 because xAI became a wholly owned SpaceX subsidiary in February 2026 following its own acquisition of X, rerouting Tesla’s prior $2 billion investment into SpaceX equity instead. Elon Musk has explicitly ruled out a direct Tesla-xAI combination in prior statements, citing structural complexities for the public automaker, while recent focus centers on SpaceX’s planned IPO rather than any Tesla tie-up. With just two weeks remaining and no regulatory filings, shareholder votes, or credible leaks indicating imminent action, the market reflects strong consensus on the timeline barrier. A surprise last-minute deal remains theoretically possible but would require overcoming entrenched corporate separation and Musk’s stated preferences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$112,008終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.2% probability against an official Tesla-xAI merger announcement by June 30 because xAI became a wholly owned SpaceX subsidiary in February 2026 following its own acquisition of X, rerouting Tesla’s prior $2 billion investment into SpaceX equity instead. Elon Musk has explicitly ruled out a direct Tesla-xAI combination in prior statements, citing structural complexities for the public automaker, while recent focus centers on SpaceX’s planned IPO rather than any Tesla tie-up. With just two weeks remaining and no regulatory filings, shareholder votes, or credible leaks indicating imminent action, the market reflects strong consensus on the timeline barrier. A surprise last-minute deal remains theoretically possible but would require overcoming entrenched corporate separation and Musk’s stated preferences.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問