OpenAI's GPT-5.4 commands a commanding 97.3% implied probability on Polymarket for the top AI model in coding by March 31, driven by its recent dominance on key benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (80.8%) and LiveCodeBench (73.9% weighted score as of mid-March 2026). Released on March 5, the model excels in agentic coding tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, and real-world software engineering, outpacing Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 (72.5%) and others amid trader consensus on its sustained lead through fresh evaluations. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect low risk of upset, a surprise pre-deadline release from rivals like Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or an LMSYS Arena coding category shift could challenge this positioning before the end-of-month snapshot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日OpenAI 97.2%
Anthropic 1.6%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$1,098,101 Vol.
$1,098,101 Vol.

OpenAI
97%

Anthropic
2%

1%

DeepSeek
<1%

xAI
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

アリババ
<1%

ムーンショット
<1%
OpenAI 97.2%
Anthropic 1.6%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$1,098,101 Vol.
$1,098,101 Vol.

OpenAI
97%

Anthropic
2%

1%

DeepSeek
<1%

xAI
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

アリババ
<1%

ムーンショット
<1%
If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Dec 12, 2025, 1:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's GPT-5.4 commands a commanding 97.3% implied probability on Polymarket for the top AI model in coding by March 31, driven by its recent dominance on key benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (80.8%) and LiveCodeBench (73.9% weighted score as of mid-March 2026). Released on March 5, the model excels in agentic coding tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, and real-world software engineering, outpacing Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 (72.5%) and others amid trader consensus on its sustained lead through fresh evaluations. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect low risk of upset, a surprise pre-deadline release from rivals like Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or an LMSYS Arena coding category shift could challenge this positioning before the end-of-month snapshot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問