Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 95.7% implied probability for possessing the #2 AI model by end of March, driven by Claude 3 Opus's rapid ascent on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its March 4 release. The model's standout performance in user-blinded evaluations—excelling in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks—propelled it past rivals like OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini, securing a firm #2 position behind the leader amid "Style Control On" metrics. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's competitive edge in large language model capabilities, validated by third-party benchmarks. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard reshuffle from new model iterations or evaluation disputes, though traders see slim odds for upsets from laggards like xAI or DeepSeek given their nascent deployments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Anthropic 95.6%
xAI 1.7%
DeepSeek <1%
OpenAI <1%
$473,563 Vol.
$473,563 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
96%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
OpenAI
1%
ムーンショット
<1%
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
アリババ
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 95.6%
xAI 1.7%
DeepSeek <1%
OpenAI <1%
$473,563 Vol.
$473,563 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$43,306 Vol.
96%
xAI
$17,635 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$71,312 Vol.
1%
OpenAI
$88,683 Vol.
1%
ムーンショット
$53,633 Vol.
<1%
$57,162 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$22,118 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$109,538 Vol.
<1%
アリババ
$10,175 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 95.7% implied probability for possessing the #2 AI model by end of March, driven by Claude 3 Opus's rapid ascent on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its March 4 release. The model's standout performance in user-blinded evaluations—excelling in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks—propelled it past rivals like OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini, securing a firm #2 position behind the leader amid "Style Control On" metrics. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's competitive edge in large language model capabilities, validated by third-party benchmarks. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard reshuffle from new model iterations or evaluation disputes, though traders see slim odds for upsets from laggards like xAI or DeepSeek given their nascent deployments.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
音量
$473,563終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 95.7% implied probability for possessing the #2 AI model by end of March, driven by Claude 3 Opus's rapid ascent on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its March 4 release. The model's standout performance in user-blinded evaluations—excelling in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks—propelled it past rivals like OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini, securing a firm #2 position behind the leader amid "Style Control On" metrics. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's competitive edge in large language model capabilities, validated by third-party benchmarks. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard reshuffle from new model iterations or evaluation disputes, though traders see slim odds for upsets from laggards like xAI or DeepSeek given their nascent deployments.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$473,563終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 95.7% implied probability for possessing the #2 AI model by end of March, driven by Claude 3 Opus's rapid ascent on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its March 4 release. The model's standout performance in user-blinded evaluations—excelling in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks—propelled it past rivals like OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini, securing a firm #2 position behind the leader amid "Style Control On" metrics. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's competitive edge in large language model capabilities, validated by third-party benchmarks. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard reshuffle from new model iterations or evaluation disputes, though traders see slim odds for upsets from laggards like xAI or DeepSeek given their nascent deployments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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