Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as the company behind the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of March 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 holding second place at 1503 Elo—just 2 points behind Google's leading Gemini 3.1 Pro—while xAI's Grok-4.20 trails further. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude enhancements, including expanded context windows, advanced tool calling, and agentic features like auto-planning and code review, solidifying its competitive edge in crowdsourced benchmarks over the past month. The near-unanimous 100% implied probability reflects the leaderboard's stability in late March, backed by real capital from informed traders. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen late-month model update from Google or xAI surpassing Claude's demonstrated capabilities before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$590,523 Vol.
$590,523 Vol.
2026/03/31
いいえ
OpenAI
いいえ
Z.ai
いいえ
DeepSeek
いいえ
ミストラル
いいえ
Anthropic
はい
アリババ
いいえ
xAI
いいえ
ムーンショット
いいえ
Meituan
いいえ
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$590,523 Vol.
$590,523 Vol.
2026/03/31
$61,884 Vol.
いいえ
OpenAI
$94,253 Vol.
いいえ
Z.ai
$26,374 Vol.
いいえ
DeepSeek
$98,583 Vol.
いいえ
ミストラル
$112,098 Vol.
いいえ
Anthropic
$63,459 Vol.
はい
アリババ
$26,158 Vol.
いいえ
xAI
$28,244 Vol.
いいえ
ムーンショット
$62,170 Vol.
いいえ
Meituan
$17,300 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as the company behind the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of March 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 holding second place at 1503 Elo—just 2 points behind Google's leading Gemini 3.1 Pro—while xAI's Grok-4.20 trails further. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude enhancements, including expanded context windows, advanced tool calling, and agentic features like auto-planning and code review, solidifying its competitive edge in crowdsourced benchmarks over the past month. The near-unanimous 100% implied probability reflects the leaderboard's stability in late March, backed by real capital from informed traders. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen late-month model update from Google or xAI surpassing Claude's demonstrated capabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
音量
$590,523終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as the company behind the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of March 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 holding second place at 1503 Elo—just 2 points behind Google's leading Gemini 3.1 Pro—while xAI's Grok-4.20 trails further. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude enhancements, including expanded context windows, advanced tool calling, and agentic features like auto-planning and code review, solidifying its competitive edge in crowdsourced benchmarks over the past month. The near-unanimous 100% implied probability reflects the leaderboard's stability in late March, backed by real capital from informed traders. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen late-month model update from Google or xAI surpassing Claude's demonstrated capabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$590,523終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as the company behind the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of March 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 holding second place at 1503 Elo—just 2 points behind Google's leading Gemini 3.1 Pro—while xAI's Grok-4.20 trails further. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude enhancements, including expanded context windows, advanced tool calling, and agentic features like auto-planning and code review, solidifying its competitive edge in crowdsourced benchmarks over the past month. The near-unanimous 100% implied probability reflects the leaderboard's stability in late March, backed by real capital from informed traders. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen late-month model update from Google or xAI surpassing Claude's demonstrated capabilities before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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