Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model as of March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leading the LMArena text leaderboard in the Style Control On category with an Elo score of 1504—well ahead of the second-place Claude Opus 4.6 at 1500 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive March rollout, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window, and advanced features like voice mode and skills API, solidifying its edge in benchmarks for math, coding, and creative tasks amid fierce competition from OpenAI and Google. While dominant, a surprise competitor model release or leaderboard recount in the final hours could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the vote margin from over 13,000 battles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アンソロピック 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$1,067,526 Vol.
$1,067,526 Vol.
2026/03/31
いいえ
OpenAI
いいえ
Z.ai
いいえ
DeepSeek
いいえ
ミストラル
いいえ
アンソロピック
はい
アリババ
いいえ
xAI
いいえ
ムーンショット
いいえ
美団
いいえ
アンソロピック 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$1,067,526 Vol.
$1,067,526 Vol.
2026/03/31
$122,247 Vol.
いいえ
OpenAI
$127,790 Vol.
いいえ
Z.ai
$60,235 Vol.
いいえ
DeepSeek
$114,380 Vol.
いいえ
ミストラル
$228,435 Vol.
いいえ
アンソロピック
$73,618 Vol.
はい
アリババ
$98,898 Vol.
いいえ
xAI
$73,571 Vol.
いいえ
ムーンショット
$64,992 Vol.
いいえ
美団
$103,360 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model as of March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leading the LMArena text leaderboard in the Style Control On category with an Elo score of 1504—well ahead of the second-place Claude Opus 4.6 at 1500 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive March rollout, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window, and advanced features like voice mode and skills API, solidifying its edge in benchmarks for math, coding, and creative tasks amid fierce competition from OpenAI and Google. While dominant, a surprise competitor model release or leaderboard recount in the final hours could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the vote margin from over 13,000 battles.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
音量
$1,067,526終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model as of March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leading the LMArena text leaderboard in the Style Control On category with an Elo score of 1504—well ahead of the second-place Claude Opus 4.6 at 1500 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive March rollout, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window, and advanced features like voice mode and skills API, solidifying its edge in benchmarks for math, coding, and creative tasks amid fierce competition from OpenAI and Google. While dominant, a surprise competitor model release or leaderboard recount in the final hours could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the vote margin from over 13,000 battles.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$1,067,526終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model as of March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leading the LMArena text leaderboard in the Style Control On category with an Elo score of 1504—well ahead of the second-place Claude Opus 4.6 at 1500 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive March rollout, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window, and advanced features like voice mode and skills API, solidifying its edge in benchmarks for math, coding, and creative tasks amid fierce competition from OpenAI and Google. While dominant, a surprise competitor model release or leaderboard recount in the final hours could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the vote margin from over 13,000 battles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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