Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has commanded the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, driving trader consensus to a 96.8% implied probability for holding the lead through month's end. The model's superior performance in reasoning, coding, multilingual tasks, and vision capabilities—outpacing GPT-4 and Gemini 1.5 Pro on key benchmarks—has solidified its position amid a quiet competitive landscape, with no major rival large language model launches in the past three weeks. Traders betting real capital see little risk of displacement, though a last-minute surprise from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or xAI could challenge this, especially given historical patterns of unannounced capability jumps near quarter-end. Resolution hinges on final leaderboard standings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日アンソロピック 97.5%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
$928,615 Vol.
$928,615 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
アンソロピック
98%
xAI
1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
美団
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
アリババ
<1%
ムーンショット
<1%
アンソロピック 97.5%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
$928,615 Vol.
$928,615 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
アンソロピック
$54,178 Vol.
98%
xAI
$60,666 Vol.
1%
$111,269 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$102,378 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$98,659 Vol.
<1%
美団
$97,092 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$218,451 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$45,641 Vol.
<1%
アリババ
$86,035 Vol.
<1%
ムーンショット
$54,250 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has commanded the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, driving trader consensus to a 96.8% implied probability for holding the lead through month's end. The model's superior performance in reasoning, coding, multilingual tasks, and vision capabilities—outpacing GPT-4 and Gemini 1.5 Pro on key benchmarks—has solidified its position amid a quiet competitive landscape, with no major rival large language model launches in the past three weeks. Traders betting real capital see little risk of displacement, though a last-minute surprise from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or xAI could challenge this, especially given historical patterns of unannounced capability jumps near quarter-end. Resolution hinges on final leaderboard standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
音量
$928,615終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has commanded the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, driving trader consensus to a 96.8% implied probability for holding the lead through month's end. The model's superior performance in reasoning, coding, multilingual tasks, and vision capabilities—outpacing GPT-4 and Gemini 1.5 Pro on key benchmarks—has solidified its position amid a quiet competitive landscape, with no major rival large language model launches in the past three weeks. Traders betting real capital see little risk of displacement, though a last-minute surprise from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or xAI could challenge this, especially given historical patterns of unannounced capability jumps near quarter-end. Resolution hinges on final leaderboard standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$928,615終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has commanded the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, driving trader consensus to a 96.8% implied probability for holding the lead through month's end. The model's superior performance in reasoning, coding, multilingual tasks, and vision capabilities—outpacing GPT-4 and Gemini 1.5 Pro on key benchmarks—has solidified its position amid a quiet competitive landscape, with no major rival large language model launches in the past three weeks. Traders betting real capital see little risk of displacement, though a last-minute surprise from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or xAI could challenge this, especially given historical patterns of unannounced capability jumps near quarter-end. Resolution hinges on final leaderboard standings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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