Polymarket traders assign a 56% implied probability to SpaceX achieving a $1.75-2.00 trillion IPO valuation, anchored by the company's April 1 confidential S-1 filing targeting around $1.75 trillion and a subsequent Bloomberg report of ambitions exceeding $2 trillion for a potential June listing. This trader consensus reflects robust Starlink revenue trajectories nearing $20 billion in 2026, record launch cadences, and Starship development milestones enhancing competitive positioning against rivals like Blue Origin. Lower brackets, such as 16.8% for $1.25-1.50 trillion, price in risks of public market valuation compression observed in recent mega-IPOs like Saudi Aramco, alongside execution uncertainties around regulatory approvals and Elon Musk's bandwidth across ventures. Key catalysts include roadshow details and final pricing ahead of mid-2026 debut.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1.75～2.00兆 51%
1.25〜1.50兆 16.8%
1.50～1.75兆 10.9%
2.00〜2.25兆 9%
$126,807 Vol.
$126,807 Vol.
1.25兆未満
4%
1.25〜1.50兆
17%
1.50～1.75兆
9%
1.75～2.00兆
56%
2.00〜2.25兆
9%
2.25兆〜2.50兆
5%
2.50兆ドル以上
4%
1.75～2.00兆 51%
1.25〜1.50兆 16.8%
1.50～1.75兆 10.9%
2.00〜2.25兆 9%
$126,807 Vol.
$126,807 Vol.
1.25兆未満
$58,779 Vol.
4%
1.25〜1.50兆
$15,850 Vol.
17%
1.50～1.75兆
$8,028 Vol.
9%
1.75～2.00兆
$10,959 Vol.
56%
2.00〜2.25兆
$13,142 Vol.
9%
2.25兆〜2.50兆
$9,747 Vol.
5%
2.50兆ドル以上
$10,301 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign a 56% implied probability to SpaceX achieving a $1.75-2.00 trillion IPO valuation, anchored by the company's April 1 confidential S-1 filing targeting around $1.75 trillion and a subsequent Bloomberg report of ambitions exceeding $2 trillion for a potential June listing. This trader consensus reflects robust Starlink revenue trajectories nearing $20 billion in 2026, record launch cadences, and Starship development milestones enhancing competitive positioning against rivals like Blue Origin. Lower brackets, such as 16.8% for $1.25-1.50 trillion, price in risks of public market valuation compression observed in recent mega-IPOs like Saudi Aramco, alongside execution uncertainties around regulatory approvals and Elon Musk's bandwidth across ventures. Key catalysts include roadshow details and final pricing ahead of mid-2026 debut.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
音量
$126,807マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign a 56% implied probability to SpaceX achieving a $1.75-2.00 trillion IPO valuation, anchored by the company's April 1 confidential S-1 filing targeting around $1.75 trillion and a subsequent Bloomberg report of ambitions exceeding $2 trillion for a potential June listing. This trader consensus reflects robust Starlink revenue trajectories nearing $20 billion in 2026, record launch cadences, and Starship development milestones enhancing competitive positioning against rivals like Blue Origin. Lower brackets, such as 16.8% for $1.25-1.50 trillion, price in risks of public market valuation compression observed in recent mega-IPOs like Saudi Aramco, alongside execution uncertainties around regulatory approvals and Elon Musk's bandwidth across ventures. Key catalysts include roadshow details and final pricing ahead of mid-2026 debut.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$126,807マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 56% implied probability to SpaceX achieving a $1.75-2.00 trillion IPO valuation, anchored by the company's April 1 confidential S-1 filing targeting around $1.75 trillion and a subsequent Bloomberg report of ambitions exceeding $2 trillion for a potential June listing. This trader consensus reflects robust Starlink revenue trajectories nearing $20 billion in 2026, record launch cadences, and Starship development milestones enhancing competitive positioning against rivals like Blue Origin. Lower brackets, such as 16.8% for $1.25-1.50 trillion, price in risks of public market valuation compression observed in recent mega-IPOs like Saudi Aramco, alongside execution uncertainties around regulatory approvals and Elon Musk's bandwidth across ventures. Key catalysts include roadshow details and final pricing ahead of mid-2026 debut.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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