Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab—a steering-wheel-less robotaxi—for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent production ramp uncertainties and regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). Despite Elon Musk's February 2026 confirmation of sub-$30k consumer pricing before 2027, first prototypes rolled off Giga Texas lines that month, with mass production targeting April but no pre-orders or sales launches announced as of early April. Tesla's history of delayed autonomous timelines, coupled with supply chain pressures on batteries and AI inference hardware, fuels doubt on achieving affordable scale this year. Key catalysts ahead include state-level driverless approvals and Q1 earnings updates on volume targets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$32,023 Vol.
$32,023 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$32,023 Vol.
$32,023 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab—a steering-wheel-less robotaxi—for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent production ramp uncertainties and regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). Despite Elon Musk's February 2026 confirmation of sub-$30k consumer pricing before 2027, first prototypes rolled off Giga Texas lines that month, with mass production targeting April but no pre-orders or sales launches announced as of early April. Tesla's history of delayed autonomous timelines, coupled with supply chain pressures on batteries and AI inference hardware, fuels doubt on achieving affordable scale this year. Key catalysts ahead include state-level driverless approvals and Q1 earnings updates on volume targets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
音量
$32,023終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab—a steering-wheel-less robotaxi—for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent production ramp uncertainties and regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). Despite Elon Musk's February 2026 confirmation of sub-$30k consumer pricing before 2027, first prototypes rolled off Giga Texas lines that month, with mass production targeting April but no pre-orders or sales launches announced as of early April. Tesla's history of delayed autonomous timelines, coupled with supply chain pressures on batteries and AI inference hardware, fuels doubt on achieving affordable scale this year. Key catalysts ahead include state-level driverless approvals and Q1 earnings updates on volume targets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$32,023終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against Tesla selling the Cybercab—a steering-wheel-less robotaxi—for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent production ramp uncertainties and regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). Despite Elon Musk's February 2026 confirmation of sub-$30k consumer pricing before 2027, first prototypes rolled off Giga Texas lines that month, with mass production targeting April but no pre-orders or sales launches announced as of early April. Tesla's history of delayed autonomous timelines, coupled with supply chain pressures on batteries and AI inference hardware, fuels doubt on achieving affordable scale this year. Key catalysts ahead include state-level driverless approvals and Q1 earnings updates on volume targets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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