Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Google holding the #3 spot on LM Arena's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) by March 31, 2026, driven by Gemini 3.1 Pro's entrenched position after its late-March release. This setup emerged from intense blind human preference battles over the past week, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 secured #1 and #2 through superior reasoning and coding prowess, leaving Gemini 3.1 Pro unchallenged at #3 with a robust Arena Score gap. Style Control mitigates presentation biases, emphasizing substantive AI capabilities. DeepSeek V3.2 and xAI's Grok trail due to weaker recent battle outcomes. Realistic challenges—a surprise vote swing or unannounced tweak—are improbable given the snapshot resolution timing and low contender momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Google 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$428,694 Vol.
$428,694 Vol.
2026/03/31
はい
OpenAI
いいえ
Z.ai
いいえ
DeepSeek
いいえ
ミストラル
いいえ
アンソロピック
いいえ
アリババ
いいえ
xAI
いいえ
ムーンショット
いいえ
美団
いいえ
Google 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$428,694 Vol.
$428,694 Vol.
2026/03/31
$45,746 Vol.
はい
OpenAI
$41,027 Vol.
いいえ
Z.ai
$131,881 Vol.
いいえ
DeepSeek
$39,245 Vol.
いいえ
ミストラル
$16,916 Vol.
いいえ
アンソロピック
$59,639 Vol.
いいえ
アリババ
$25,813 Vol.
いいえ
xAI
$35,445 Vol.
いいえ
ムーンショット
$20,342 Vol.
いいえ
美団
$12,639 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Google holding the #3 spot on LM Arena's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) by March 31, 2026, driven by Gemini 3.1 Pro's entrenched position after its late-March release. This setup emerged from intense blind human preference battles over the past week, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 secured #1 and #2 through superior reasoning and coding prowess, leaving Gemini 3.1 Pro unchallenged at #3 with a robust Arena Score gap. Style Control mitigates presentation biases, emphasizing substantive AI capabilities. DeepSeek V3.2 and xAI's Grok trail due to weaker recent battle outcomes. Realistic challenges—a surprise vote swing or unannounced tweak—are improbable given the snapshot resolution timing and low contender momentum.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
音量
$428,694終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Google holding the #3 spot on LM Arena's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) by March 31, 2026, driven by Gemini 3.1 Pro's entrenched position after its late-March release. This setup emerged from intense blind human preference battles over the past week, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 secured #1 and #2 through superior reasoning and coding prowess, leaving Gemini 3.1 Pro unchallenged at #3 with a robust Arena Score gap. Style Control mitigates presentation biases, emphasizing substantive AI capabilities. DeepSeek V3.2 and xAI's Grok trail due to weaker recent battle outcomes. Realistic challenges—a surprise vote swing or unannounced tweak—are improbable given the snapshot resolution timing and low contender momentum.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$428,694終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Google holding the #3 spot on LM Arena's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) by March 31, 2026, driven by Gemini 3.1 Pro's entrenched position after its late-March release. This setup emerged from intense blind human preference battles over the past week, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 secured #1 and #2 through superior reasoning and coding prowess, leaving Gemini 3.1 Pro unchallenged at #3 with a robust Arena Score gap. Style Control mitigates presentation biases, emphasizing substantive AI capabilities. DeepSeek V3.2 and xAI's Grok trail due to weaker recent battle outcomes. Realistic challenges—a surprise vote swing or unannounced tweak—are improbable given the snapshot resolution timing and low contender momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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