Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro commands a dominant 93.7% implied probability for securing the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena "Style Control On" leaderboard by March 31, reflecting trader consensus on its stable Elo rating amid recent frontier model releases. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 hold the top two positions following their March launches, bolstering multimodal and reasoning benchmarks while fending off challengers. xAI's Grok 4.20 has gained traction in the past week with improved agentic capabilities, explaining its 3.5% share, but insufficient battles remain to overtake Gemini. Realistic challenges include a late surge in user votes for Grok or an unannounced Anthropic tweak, though low battle volumes near resolution favor status quo.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Google 94.0%
xAI 3.5%
アンソロピック 2.5%
Z.ai <1%
$366,848 Vol.
$366,848 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
94%
xAI
4%
アンソロピック
2%
Z.ai
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
アリババ
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ムーンショット
<1%
美団
<1%
Google 94.0%
xAI 3.5%
アンソロピック 2.5%
Z.ai <1%
$366,848 Vol.
$366,848 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$37,047 Vol.
94%
xAI
$29,520 Vol.
4%
アンソロピック
$33,619 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$130,083 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$15,811 Vol.
<1%
アリババ
$23,085 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$30,507 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$36,206 Vol.
<1%
ムーンショット
$19,343 Vol.
<1%
美団
$11,628 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro commands a dominant 93.7% implied probability for securing the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena "Style Control On" leaderboard by March 31, reflecting trader consensus on its stable Elo rating amid recent frontier model releases. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 hold the top two positions following their March launches, bolstering multimodal and reasoning benchmarks while fending off challengers. xAI's Grok 4.20 has gained traction in the past week with improved agentic capabilities, explaining its 3.5% share, but insufficient battles remain to overtake Gemini. Realistic challenges include a late surge in user votes for Grok or an unannounced Anthropic tweak, though low battle volumes near resolution favor status quo.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
音量
$366,848終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro commands a dominant 93.7% implied probability for securing the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena "Style Control On" leaderboard by March 31, reflecting trader consensus on its stable Elo rating amid recent frontier model releases. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 hold the top two positions following their March launches, bolstering multimodal and reasoning benchmarks while fending off challengers. xAI's Grok 4.20 has gained traction in the past week with improved agentic capabilities, explaining its 3.5% share, but insufficient battles remain to overtake Gemini. Realistic challenges include a late surge in user votes for Grok or an unannounced Anthropic tweak, though low battle volumes near resolution favor status quo.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$366,848終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro commands a dominant 93.7% implied probability for securing the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena "Style Control On" leaderboard by March 31, reflecting trader consensus on its stable Elo rating amid recent frontier model releases. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 hold the top two positions following their March launches, bolstering multimodal and reasoning benchmarks while fending off challengers. xAI's Grok 4.20 has gained traction in the past week with improved agentic capabilities, explaining its 3.5% share, but insufficient battles remain to overtake Gemini. Realistic challenges include a late surge in user votes for Grok or an unannounced Anthropic tweak, though low battle volumes near resolution favor status quo.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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