Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 securing a commanding runner-up position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing only Gemini 3.1 Pro's 1505 while far ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, xAI's Grok-4.20, and Chinese contenders such as DeepSeek or Alibaba's Qwen. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.6 release in early March, which demonstrated superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks amid a flurry of 12 new large language models that month, solidifying its competitive edge through crowdsourced battles and verified evaluations. With the market resolving imminently, only an improbable last-minute leaderboard refresh or surprise model drop from Google or OpenAI could challenge this near-certain outcome, though traders see negligible risk given stable rankings over the past week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 100.0%
アリババ <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$1,392,610 Vol.
$1,392,610 Vol.
2026/03/31
アリババ
いいえ
DeepSeek
いいえ
いいえ
バイドゥ
いいえ
ムーンショット
いいえ
Anthropic
はい
Z.ai
いいえ
Mistral
いいえ
OpenAI
いいえ
xAI
いいえ
美団
いいえ
Anthropic 100.0%
アリババ <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$1,392,610 Vol.
$1,392,610 Vol.
2026/03/31
アリババ
$74,803 Vol.
いいえ
DeepSeek
$157,248 Vol.
いいえ
$128,864 Vol.
いいえ
バイドゥ
$84,944 Vol.
いいえ
ムーンショット
$66,159 Vol.
いいえ
Anthropic
$111,679 Vol.
はい
Z.ai
$65,125 Vol.
いいえ
Mistral
$579,016 Vol.
いいえ
OpenAI
$43,648 Vol.
いいえ
xAI
$61,415 Vol.
いいえ
美団
$19,709 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 securing a commanding runner-up position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing only Gemini 3.1 Pro's 1505 while far ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, xAI's Grok-4.20, and Chinese contenders such as DeepSeek or Alibaba's Qwen. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.6 release in early March, which demonstrated superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks amid a flurry of 12 new large language models that month, solidifying its competitive edge through crowdsourced battles and verified evaluations. With the market resolving imminently, only an improbable last-minute leaderboard refresh or surprise model drop from Google or OpenAI could challenge this near-certain outcome, though traders see negligible risk given stable rankings over the past week.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
音量
$1,392,610終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 securing a commanding runner-up position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing only Gemini 3.1 Pro's 1505 while far ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, xAI's Grok-4.20, and Chinese contenders such as DeepSeek or Alibaba's Qwen. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.6 release in early March, which demonstrated superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks amid a flurry of 12 new large language models that month, solidifying its competitive edge through crowdsourced battles and verified evaluations. With the market resolving imminently, only an improbable last-minute leaderboard refresh or surprise model drop from Google or OpenAI could challenge this near-certain outcome, though traders see negligible risk given stable rankings over the past week.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$1,392,610終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 securing a commanding runner-up position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing only Gemini 3.1 Pro's 1505 while far ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, xAI's Grok-4.20, and Chinese contenders such as DeepSeek or Alibaba's Qwen. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.6 release in early March, which demonstrated superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks amid a flurry of 12 new large language models that month, solidifying its competitive edge through crowdsourced battles and verified evaluations. With the market resolving imminently, only an improbable last-minute leaderboard refresh or surprise model drop from Google or OpenAI could challenge this near-certain outcome, though traders see negligible risk given stable rankings over the past week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問