Trader consensus heavily favors Anthropic (90.5% implied probability) to hold the second-best AI model by April's end on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking's tie for the top Elo score of 1505 alongside Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, with multiple Claude variants dominating positions 3-4 and 8. Recent April 17 updates solidified Anthropic's edge in coding, agentic tasks, and professional benchmarks over OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high (1495 Elo) and xAI's Grok-4.20, reflecting superior demonstrated capabilities in crowdsourced battles. This positioning stems from Anthropic's rapid iteration amid a stable competitive landscape, with no major rival releases signaled before month-end. Realistic challenges include a late Google Gemini refresh leapfrogging via reasoning gains or leaderboard shifts from surging battle volumes, though such volatility has been minimal lately.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.5%
Google 2.3%
DeepSeek <1%
$107,445 Vol.
$107,445 Vol.

Anthropic
91%

OpenAI
5%

2%

DeepSeek
1%

Meta
<1%

バイトダンス
<1%

ムーンショット
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

xAI
<1%

百度
<1%

アマゾン
<1%

ミストラル
<1%

美団
<1%

アリババ
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.5%
Google 2.3%
DeepSeek <1%
$107,445 Vol.
$107,445 Vol.

Anthropic
91%

OpenAI
5%

2%

DeepSeek
1%

Meta
<1%

バイトダンス
<1%

ムーンショット
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

xAI
<1%

百度
<1%

アマゾン
<1%

ミストラル
<1%

美団
<1%

アリババ
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Anthropic (90.5% implied probability) to hold the second-best AI model by April's end on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking's tie for the top Elo score of 1505 alongside Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, with multiple Claude variants dominating positions 3-4 and 8. Recent April 17 updates solidified Anthropic's edge in coding, agentic tasks, and professional benchmarks over OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high (1495 Elo) and xAI's Grok-4.20, reflecting superior demonstrated capabilities in crowdsourced battles. This positioning stems from Anthropic's rapid iteration amid a stable competitive landscape, with no major rival releases signaled before month-end. Realistic challenges include a late Google Gemini refresh leapfrogging via reasoning gains or leaderboard shifts from surging battle volumes, though such volatility has been minimal lately.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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