Skip to main content
Market icon

4月末に2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?

Market icon

4月末に2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?

Anthropic 91%

OpenAI 5.5%

Google 2.3%

DeepSeek <1%

Polymarket

$107,445 Vol.

Anthropic 91%

OpenAI 5.5%

Google 2.3%

DeepSeek <1%

Polymarket

$107,445 Vol.

2026年4月末にAnthropicは2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

Anthropic

$15,839 Vol.

91%

OpenAIは2026年4月末時点で2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

OpenAI

$9,258 Vol.

5%

2026年4月末に、Googleは2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

Google

$10,321 Vol.

2%

2026年4月末時点で、DeepSeekは2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

DeepSeek

$15,768 Vol.

1%

Metaは2026年4月末時点で2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

Meta

$4,905 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末にバイトダンスは2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

バイトダンス

$4,868 Vol.

<1%

ムーンショットは2026年4月末に2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

ムーンショット

$4,253 Vol.

<1%

Z.aiは2026年4月末時点で2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

Z.ai

$4,692 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末にxAIは2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

xAI

$6,024 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末時点で百度は2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っていますか? icon

百度

$5,232 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末に、アマゾンは2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

アマゾン

$4,401 Vol.

<1%

ミストラルは2026年4月末に2番目に優れたAIモデルを持つことになりますか? icon

ミストラル

$4,419 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末に美団は2番目に優れたAIモデルを持つことになりますか? icon

美団

$5,305 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末にアリババは2番目に優れたAIモデルを持つことになりますか? icon

アリババ

$5,375 Vol.

<1%

マイクロソフトは2026年4月末に2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

マイクロソフト

$6,789 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus heavily favors Anthropic (90.5% implied probability) to hold the second-best AI model by April's end on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking's tie for the top Elo score of 1505 alongside Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, with multiple Claude variants dominating positions 3-4 and 8. Recent April 17 updates solidified Anthropic's edge in coding, agentic tasks, and professional benchmarks over OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high (1495 Elo) and xAI's Grok-4.20, reflecting superior demonstrated capabilities in crowdsourced battles. This positioning stems from Anthropic's rapid iteration amid a stable competitive landscape, with no major rival releases signaled before month-end. Realistic challenges include a late Google Gemini refresh leapfrogging via reasoning gains or leaderboard shifts from surging battle volumes, though such volatility has been minimal lately.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$107,445
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus heavily favors Anthropic (90.5% implied probability) to hold the second-best AI model by April's end on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking's tie for the top Elo score of 1505 alongside Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, with multiple Claude variants dominating positions 3-4 and 8. Recent April 17 updates solidified Anthropic's edge in coding, agentic tasks, and professional benchmarks over OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high (1495 Elo) and xAI's Grok-4.20, reflecting superior demonstrated capabilities in crowdsourced battles. This positioning stems from Anthropic's rapid iteration amid a stable competitive landscape, with no major rival releases signaled before month-end. Realistic challenges include a late Google Gemini refresh leapfrogging via reasoning gains or leaderboard shifts from surging battle volumes, though such volatility has been minimal lately.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$107,445
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「4月末に2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」はPolymarket上の15個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Anthropic」で91%、次いで「OpenAI」が5%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、91¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に91%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「4月末に2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」は$107.4Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Mar 20, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「4月末に2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている15個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「4月末に2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「Anthropic」で91%であり、市場がこの結果に91%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「OpenAI」で5%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「4月末に2番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。