Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.5% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the AI lab's explicit preparations targeting Q4 2026 rather than H1, as reported in recent banker discussions and law firm hires like Wilson Sonsini in late 2025. Despite explosive revenue growth to a $30 billion run-rate, a February Series G round valuing the Claude developer at $380 billion, and rejection of $800 billion private offers signaling IPO ambitions, no S-1 filing or official announcement has emerged in the past 30 days amid ongoing Amazon and Google infrastructure deals. This positions traders for a multi-month process ahead, though an accelerated confidential filing or favorable market window could challenge the odds before summer.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年6月30日までにIPOなし 96.5%
6,000億ドル以上 1.5%
1000億ドル未満 <1%
4,000億～6,000億 <1%
$1,046,158 Vol.
$1,046,158 Vol.
2026/06/30
1000億ドル未満
1%
1,000〜2,000億ドル
<1%
2,000～3,000億ドル
<1%
3,000〜4,000億
<1%
4,000億～6,000億
<1%
6,000億ドル以上
2%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし
97%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし 96.5%
6,000億ドル以上 1.5%
1000億ドル未満 <1%
4,000億～6,000億 <1%
$1,046,158 Vol.
$1,046,158 Vol.
2026/06/30
1000億ドル未満
$213,987 Vol.
1%
1,000〜2,000億ドル
$73,476 Vol.
<1%
2,000～3,000億ドル
$128,086 Vol.
<1%
3,000〜4,000億
$77,138 Vol.
<1%
4,000億～6,000億
$122,718 Vol.
<1%
6,000億ドル以上
$251,381 Vol.
2%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし
$179,372 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.5% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the AI lab's explicit preparations targeting Q4 2026 rather than H1, as reported in recent banker discussions and law firm hires like Wilson Sonsini in late 2025. Despite explosive revenue growth to a $30 billion run-rate, a February Series G round valuing the Claude developer at $380 billion, and rejection of $800 billion private offers signaling IPO ambitions, no S-1 filing or official announcement has emerged in the past 30 days amid ongoing Amazon and Google infrastructure deals. This positions traders for a multi-month process ahead, though an accelerated confidential filing or favorable market window could challenge the odds before summer.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
音量
$1,046,158終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.5% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the AI lab's explicit preparations targeting Q4 2026 rather than H1, as reported in recent banker discussions and law firm hires like Wilson Sonsini in late 2025. Despite explosive revenue growth to a $30 billion run-rate, a February Series G round valuing the Claude developer at $380 billion, and rejection of $800 billion private offers signaling IPO ambitions, no S-1 filing or official announcement has emerged in the past 30 days amid ongoing Amazon and Google infrastructure deals. This positions traders for a multi-month process ahead, though an accelerated confidential filing or favorable market window could challenge the odds before summer.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$1,046,158終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.5% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the AI lab's explicit preparations targeting Q4 2026 rather than H1, as reported in recent banker discussions and law firm hires like Wilson Sonsini in late 2025. Despite explosive revenue growth to a $30 billion run-rate, a February Series G round valuing the Claude developer at $380 billion, and rejection of $800 billion private offers signaling IPO ambitions, no S-1 filing or official announcement has emerged in the past 30 days amid ongoing Amazon and Google infrastructure deals. This positions traders for a multi-month process ahead, though an accelerated confidential filing or favorable market window could challenge the odds before summer.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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