Traders assign overwhelming odds above 94 percent to Anthropic holding the leading AI model by end of August, reflecting strong consensus around its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership in areas like reasoning and safety. Competitive positioning against OpenAI, Google, and others appears driven by consistent capability demonstrations and ecosystem momentum. While this skin-in-the-game sentiment signals durable advantages, realistic challenges include an unexpected late-month release from a rival, shifts in evaluation criteria toward multimodal or efficiency metrics, or delays in third-party validation that could alter the final ranking.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 95%
OpenAI 3.7%
Google 1.3%
Meta <1%
$1,517,591 Vol.
$1,517,591 Vol.
2026/08/31
Anthropic
95%
OpenAI
4%
1%
Meta
<1%
アリババ
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ムーンショット
<1%
バイドゥ
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
美団
<1%
テンセント
<1%
StepFun
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
Anthropic 95%
OpenAI 3.7%
Google 1.3%
Meta <1%
$1,517,591 Vol.
$1,517,591 Vol.
2026/08/31
Anthropic
$325,006 Vol.
95%
OpenAI
$143,801 Vol.
4%
$124,010 Vol.
1%
Meta
$135,656 Vol.
<1%
アリババ
$128,789 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$108,280 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$121,354 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$122,637 Vol.
<1%
ムーンショット
$107,002 Vol.
<1%
バイドゥ
$15,032 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$9,778 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$88,729 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$12,844 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$23,168 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$4,351 Vol.
<1%
美団
$3,803 Vol.
<1%
テンセント
$4,363 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$11,524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign overwhelming odds above 94 percent to Anthropic holding the leading AI model by end of August, reflecting strong consensus around its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership in areas like reasoning and safety. Competitive positioning against OpenAI, Google, and others appears driven by consistent capability demonstrations and ecosystem momentum. While this skin-in-the-game sentiment signals durable advantages, realistic challenges include an unexpected late-month release from a rival, shifts in evaluation criteria toward multimodal or efficiency metrics, or delays in third-party validation that could alter the final ranking.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
音量
$1,517,591終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign overwhelming odds above 94 percent to Anthropic holding the leading AI model by end of August, reflecting strong consensus around its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership in areas like reasoning and safety. Competitive positioning against OpenAI, Google, and others appears driven by consistent capability demonstrations and ecosystem momentum. While this skin-in-the-game sentiment signals durable advantages, realistic challenges include an unexpected late-month release from a rival, shifts in evaluation criteria toward multimodal or efficiency metrics, or delays in third-party validation that could alter the final ranking.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$1,517,591終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETTraders assign overwhelming odds above 94 percent to Anthropic holding the leading AI model by end of August, reflecting strong consensus around its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership in areas like reasoning and safety. Competitive positioning against OpenAI, Google, and others appears driven by consistent capability demonstrations and ecosystem momentum. While this skin-in-the-game sentiment signals durable advantages, realistic challenges include an unexpected late-month release from a rival, shifts in evaluation criteria toward multimodal or efficiency metrics, or delays in third-party validation that could alter the final ranking.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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