Anthropic holds an 86% market-implied probability of fielding the top large language model by end-September 2026, driven by the early-September release of Claude Fable 5.1, which posted the leading BenchLM score of 84.61 and topped multiple leaderboards in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks as of September 10 verification. This edges out OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (84.08), released September 3 and strong on cybersecurity and computer-use tasks, while models from Google, Meta, Moonshot, and others trail further behind on current aggregates. With roughly three weeks remaining, traders appear to view Anthropic’s recent capability gains and consistent frontier positioning as durable through the resolution window, though any surprise late-month release or benchmark shift could alter the narrow gap between the leaders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 7.9%
Meta 4.0%
Google 1.9%
$100,028 Vol.
$100,028 Vol.
2026/09/30
Anthropic
86%
OpenAI
8%
Meta
4%
2%
ムーンショット
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
アリババ
<1%
バイドゥ
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
美団
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
テンセント
<1%
StepFun
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 7.9%
Meta 4.0%
Google 1.9%
$100,028 Vol.
$100,028 Vol.
2026/09/30
Anthropic
$42,268 Vol.
86%
OpenAI
$11,870 Vol.
8%
Meta
$10,221 Vol.
4%
$5,906 Vol.
2%
ムーンショット
$3,942 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,859 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,872 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,229 Vol.
<1%
アリババ
$4,041 Vol.
<1%
バイドゥ
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$436 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
美団
$930 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$1,554 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$436 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 Vol.
<1%
テンセント
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds an 86% market-implied probability of fielding the top large language model by end-September 2026, driven by the early-September release of Claude Fable 5.1, which posted the leading BenchLM score of 84.61 and topped multiple leaderboards in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks as of September 10 verification. This edges out OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (84.08), released September 3 and strong on cybersecurity and computer-use tasks, while models from Google, Meta, Moonshot, and others trail further behind on current aggregates. With roughly three weeks remaining, traders appear to view Anthropic’s recent capability gains and consistent frontier positioning as durable through the resolution window, though any surprise late-month release or benchmark shift could alter the narrow gap between the leaders.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
音量
$100,028終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds an 86% market-implied probability of fielding the top large language model by end-September 2026, driven by the early-September release of Claude Fable 5.1, which posted the leading BenchLM score of 84.61 and topped multiple leaderboards in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks as of September 10 verification. This edges out OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (84.08), released September 3 and strong on cybersecurity and computer-use tasks, while models from Google, Meta, Moonshot, and others trail further behind on current aggregates. With roughly three weeks remaining, traders appear to view Anthropic’s recent capability gains and consistent frontier positioning as durable through the resolution window, though any surprise late-month release or benchmark shift could alter the narrow gap between the leaders.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$100,028終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETAnthropic holds an 86% market-implied probability of fielding the top large language model by end-September 2026, driven by the early-September release of Claude Fable 5.1, which posted the leading BenchLM score of 84.61 and topped multiple leaderboards in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks as of September 10 verification. This edges out OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (84.08), released September 3 and strong on cybersecurity and computer-use tasks, while models from Google, Meta, Moonshot, and others trail further behind on current aggregates. With roughly three weeks remaining, traders appear to view Anthropic’s recent capability gains and consistent frontier positioning as durable through the resolution window, though any surprise late-month release or benchmark shift could alter the narrow gap between the leaders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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