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4月末に3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?

Market icon

4月末に3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?

アンソロピック 74%

Google 13%

OpenAI 5.5%

Meta 1.7%

Polymarket

$598,449 Vol.

アンソロピック 74%

Google 13%

OpenAI 5.5%

Meta 1.7%

Polymarket

$598,449 Vol.

2026年4月末にアンソロピックは3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っていますか? icon

アンソロピック

$142,402 Vol.

74%

2026年4月末時点でGoogleは3番目に優れたAIモデルを持つことになりますか? icon

Google

$55,722 Vol.

13%

OpenAIは2026年4月末時点で3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

OpenAI

$25,644 Vol.

6%

Metaは2026年4月末時点で3番目に優れたAIモデルを持つことになりますか? icon

Meta

$13,337 Vol.

2%

DeepSeekは2026年4月末に3番目に優れたAIモデルを持つことになりますか? icon

DeepSeek

$63,987 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末時点でxAIは3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

xAI

$103,522 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末にバイドゥは3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

バイドゥ

$18,348 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末時点でアリババは3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

アリババ

$39,369 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末時点で、バイトダンスは3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っていますか? icon

バイトダンス

$27,597 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末に、Amazonは3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

Amazon

$29,737 Vol.

<1%

Z.aiは2026年4月末時点で3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

Z.ai

$33,041 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末時点で、マイクロソフトは3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

マイクロソフト

$8,032 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末に、Mistralは3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

Mistral

$13,009 Vol.

<1%

ムーンショットは2026年4月末時点で3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているでしょうか? icon

ムーンショット

$12,137 Vol.

<1%

2026年4月末に美団は3番目に優れたAIモデルを持つことになりますか? icon

美団

$12,613 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74% implied probability to claim the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by their Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model's recent ascent to the #1 spot with 1504 Elo and control of the entire top three positions as of mid-April. This dominance stems from superior reasoning, self-correction, and coding benchmarks, outpacing rivals following optimizations released last week. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails closely in second-tier contention at 12%, buoyed by multimodal gains, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds 5.7% amid slipping rankings versus frontier peers. With 11 days remaining, last-minute releases like Anthropic's delayed Claude Mythos or competitor previews could reorder the closely contested top ranks.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$598,449
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74% implied probability to claim the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by their Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model's recent ascent to the #1 spot with 1504 Elo and control of the entire top three positions as of mid-April. This dominance stems from superior reasoning, self-correction, and coding benchmarks, outpacing rivals following optimizations released last week. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails closely in second-tier contention at 12%, buoyed by multimodal gains, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds 5.7% amid slipping rankings versus frontier peers. With 11 days remaining, last-minute releases like Anthropic's delayed Claude Mythos or competitor previews could reorder the closely contested top ranks.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$598,449
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「4月末に3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」はPolymarket上の15個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「アンソロピック」で74%、次いで「Google」が13%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、74¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に74%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「4月末に3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」は$598.4Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Mar 20, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「4月末に3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている15個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「4月末に3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「アンソロピック」で74%であり、市場がこの結果に74%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Google」で13%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「4月末に3番目に優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。