Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74% implied probability to claim the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by their Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model's recent ascent to the #1 spot with 1504 Elo and control of the entire top three positions as of mid-April. This dominance stems from superior reasoning, self-correction, and coding benchmarks, outpacing rivals following optimizations released last week. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails closely in second-tier contention at 12%, buoyed by multimodal gains, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds 5.7% amid slipping rankings versus frontier peers. With 11 days remaining, last-minute releases like Anthropic's delayed Claude Mythos or competitor previews could reorder the closely contested top ranks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アンソロピック 74%
Google 13%
OpenAI 5.5%
Meta 1.7%
$598,449 Vol.
$598,449 Vol.

アンソロピック
74%

13%

OpenAI
6%

Meta
2%

DeepSeek
<1%

xAI
<1%

バイドゥ
<1%

アリババ
<1%

バイトダンス
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ムーンショット
<1%

美団
<1%
アンソロピック 74%
Google 13%
OpenAI 5.5%
Meta 1.7%
$598,449 Vol.
$598,449 Vol.

アンソロピック
74%

13%

OpenAI
6%

Meta
2%

DeepSeek
<1%

xAI
<1%

バイドゥ
<1%

アリババ
<1%

バイトダンス
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ムーンショット
<1%

美団
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74% implied probability to claim the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by their Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model's recent ascent to the #1 spot with 1504 Elo and control of the entire top three positions as of mid-April. This dominance stems from superior reasoning, self-correction, and coding benchmarks, outpacing rivals following optimizations released last week. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails closely in second-tier contention at 12%, buoyed by multimodal gains, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds 5.7% amid slipping rankings versus frontier peers. With 11 days remaining, last-minute releases like Anthropic's delayed Claude Mythos or competitor previews could reorder the closely contested top ranks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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