Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 49.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which dominates LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards in coding, agentic workflows, and software engineering benchmarks, surpassing prior Opus 4.6 iterations. Google's 27.5% share reflects Gemini 3's strong reasoning gains and historical rapid iteration cycles, positioning it as the primary challenger amid whispers of near-term upgrades. OpenAI's dipped 10.5% odds stem from GPT-5.x models trailing in recent evaluations, with xAI's Grok 4 holding niche coding strength at 4.3%. Key catalysts ahead include developer conference demos and benchmark refreshes, where demonstrated capabilities could shift the closely contested landscape.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アンソロピック 50%
Google 28%
OpenAI 11%
xAI 4.3%
$1,350,567 Vol.
$1,350,567 Vol.
2026/06/30
アンソロピック
50%
28%
OpenAI
11%
xAI
4%
Z.ai
3%
メイトゥアン
2%
DeepSeek
1%
アリババ
1%
Meta
1%
アマゾン
1%
ムーンショット
<1%
バイドゥ
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
アンソロピック 50%
Google 28%
OpenAI 11%
xAI 4.3%
$1,350,567 Vol.
$1,350,567 Vol.
2026/06/30
アンソロピック
$21,854 Vol.
50%
$13,354 Vol.
28%
OpenAI
$46,359 Vol.
11%
xAI
$10,329 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$402,190 Vol.
3%
メイトゥアン
$267,346 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$180,755 Vol.
1%
アリババ
$131,913 Vol.
1%
Meta
$4,212 Vol.
1%
アマゾン
$12,670 Vol.
1%
ムーンショット
$199,416 Vol.
<1%
バイドゥ
$3,782 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$46,812 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$3,438 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$6,137 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 49.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which dominates LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards in coding, agentic workflows, and software engineering benchmarks, surpassing prior Opus 4.6 iterations. Google's 27.5% share reflects Gemini 3's strong reasoning gains and historical rapid iteration cycles, positioning it as the primary challenger amid whispers of near-term upgrades. OpenAI's dipped 10.5% odds stem from GPT-5.x models trailing in recent evaluations, with xAI's Grok 4 holding niche coding strength at 4.3%. Key catalysts ahead include developer conference demos and benchmark refreshes, where demonstrated capabilities could shift the closely contested landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
音量
$1,350,567終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 49.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which dominates LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards in coding, agentic workflows, and software engineering benchmarks, surpassing prior Opus 4.6 iterations. Google's 27.5% share reflects Gemini 3's strong reasoning gains and historical rapid iteration cycles, positioning it as the primary challenger amid whispers of near-term upgrades. OpenAI's dipped 10.5% odds stem from GPT-5.x models trailing in recent evaluations, with xAI's Grok 4 holding niche coding strength at 4.3%. Key catalysts ahead include developer conference demos and benchmark refreshes, where demonstrated capabilities could shift the closely contested landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$1,350,567終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 49.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which dominates LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards in coding, agentic workflows, and software engineering benchmarks, surpassing prior Opus 4.6 iterations. Google's 27.5% share reflects Gemini 3's strong reasoning gains and historical rapid iteration cycles, positioning it as the primary challenger amid whispers of near-term upgrades. OpenAI's dipped 10.5% odds stem from GPT-5.x models trailing in recent evaluations, with xAI's Grok 4 holding niche coding strength at 4.3%. Key catalysts ahead include developer conference demos and benchmark refreshes, where demonstrated capabilities could shift the closely contested landscape.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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