Anthropic commands trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for the top AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's June 20 release, which surged to the summit of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo rating exceeding 1280—outpacing OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding (HumanEval 92%), math reasoning (GPQA), and vision tasks. Google trails at 22% on Gemini 1.5 Pro's consistent strength, while OpenAI's 12.5% reflects post-GPT-4o stagnation amid delays for the anticipated o1 reasoning model. xAI's 7% stems from Grok-1.5V hype but lacks a June contender. With resolution imminent, traders eye last-minute announcements from Mistral or DeepSeek, though Claude's benchmark lead and no major counters in the past week solidify the positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日アンソロピック 46%
Google 22%
OpenAI 12%
xAI 7%
$140,068 Vol.
$140,068 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
アンソロピック
49%
22%
OpenAI
12%
xAI
7%
ミストラル
2%
ムーンショット
2%
DeepSeek
2%
メイトゥアン
2%
Z.ai
2%
アリババ
1%
アンソロピック 46%
Google 22%
OpenAI 12%
xAI 7%
$140,068 Vol.
$140,068 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
アンソロピック
$16,264 Vol.
49%
$8,692 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
12%
xAI
$0 Vol.
7%
ミストラル
$0 Vol.
2%
ムーンショット
$0 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
2%
メイトゥアン
$115,112 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
2%
アリババ
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for the top AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's June 20 release, which surged to the summit of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo rating exceeding 1280—outpacing OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding (HumanEval 92%), math reasoning (GPQA), and vision tasks. Google trails at 22% on Gemini 1.5 Pro's consistent strength, while OpenAI's 12.5% reflects post-GPT-4o stagnation amid delays for the anticipated o1 reasoning model. xAI's 7% stems from Grok-1.5V hype but lacks a June contender. With resolution imminent, traders eye last-minute announcements from Mistral or DeepSeek, though Claude's benchmark lead and no major counters in the past week solidify the positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
音量
$140,068終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for the top AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's June 20 release, which surged to the summit of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo rating exceeding 1280—outpacing OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding (HumanEval 92%), math reasoning (GPQA), and vision tasks. Google trails at 22% on Gemini 1.5 Pro's consistent strength, while OpenAI's 12.5% reflects post-GPT-4o stagnation amid delays for the anticipated o1 reasoning model. xAI's 7% stems from Grok-1.5V hype but lacks a June contender. With resolution imminent, traders eye last-minute announcements from Mistral or DeepSeek, though Claude's benchmark lead and no major counters in the past week solidify the positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$140,068終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for the top AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's June 20 release, which surged to the summit of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo rating exceeding 1280—outpacing OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding (HumanEval 92%), math reasoning (GPQA), and vision tasks. Google trails at 22% on Gemini 1.5 Pro's consistent strength, while OpenAI's 12.5% reflects post-GPT-4o stagnation amid delays for the anticipated o1 reasoning model. xAI's 7% stems from Grok-1.5V hype but lacks a June contender. With resolution imminent, traders eye last-minute announcements from Mistral or DeepSeek, though Claude's benchmark lead and no major counters in the past week solidify the positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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