Trader consensus has locked in at a near-certain 100% implied probability for exactly 12 SpaceX launches in April 2026, driven by the official tally on SpaceX's launches page confirming the month's close on April 30 with no additional missions. This frontrunner status solidified after back-to-back successes on April 29—Starlink from Vandenberg and Viasat-3 F3 on Falcon Heavy from Kennedy—capping a record-shattering cadence that included 10 prior Starlink groups, Cygnus NG-24 resupply, and GPS III-8, marking SpaceX's 50th mission of the year by April 26 amid surging Starlink deployment momentum. The aggressive schedule from Florida and California pads met expectations without delays, reflecting Elon Musk's high-stakes push for orbital dominance. Realistic upsets now hinge on rare resolution disputes, like a retroactive suborbital inclusion or FAA recount, though traders see negligible risk post-deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日12 100.0%
≤11 <1%
13 <1%
14 <1%
$99,730 Vol.
$99,730 Vol.
≤11
いいえ
12
はい
13
いいえ
14
いいえ
15
いいえ
16
いいえ
17回以上
いいえ
12 100.0%
≤11 <1%
13 <1%
14 <1%
$99,730 Vol.
$99,730 Vol.
≤11
いいえ
12
はい
13
いいえ
14
いいえ
15
いいえ
16
いいえ
17回以上
いいえ
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
マーケット開始日: Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus has locked in at a near-certain 100% implied probability for exactly 12 SpaceX launches in April 2026, driven by the official tally on SpaceX's launches page confirming the month's close on April 30 with no additional missions. This frontrunner status solidified after back-to-back successes on April 29—Starlink from Vandenberg and Viasat-3 F3 on Falcon Heavy from Kennedy—capping a record-shattering cadence that included 10 prior Starlink groups, Cygnus NG-24 resupply, and GPS III-8, marking SpaceX's 50th mission of the year by April 26 amid surging Starlink deployment momentum. The aggressive schedule from Florida and California pads met expectations without delays, reflecting Elon Musk's high-stakes push for orbital dominance. Realistic upsets now hinge on rare resolution disputes, like a retroactive suborbital inclusion or FAA recount, though traders see negligible risk post-deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問