Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects SpaceX's blistering launch cadence, with equal 43% implied probabilities clustering around 12-17 launches for April, signaling optimism for another record-breaking month amid Elon Musk's pop culture dominance and Starlink expansion hype. Driving this sentiment: SpaceX's 2024 trajectory of 28 Q1 orbital launches, recent Falcon 9 successes, and a packed manifest featuring multiple Starlink V2 Mini missions, plus potential Starship hops if FAA approvals align. Key differentiators include weather delays at key sites like Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral, plus any regulatory snags, which could cap totals below 12 (26.5% odds); upcoming T-30 day windows and live-stream buzz will sharpen focus as April unfolds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日12 43%
13 43%
14 43%
15 43%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤11
27%
12
43%
13
43%
14
43%
15
43%
16
43%
17 or more
43%
12 43%
13 43%
14 43%
15 43%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤11
$28 Vol.
27%
12
$0 Vol.
43%
13
$0 Vol.
43%
14
$0 Vol.
43%
15
$0 Vol.
43%
16
$0 Vol.
43%
17 or more
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
音量
$28終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
音量
$28終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects SpaceX's blistering launch cadence, with equal 43% implied probabilities clustering around 12-17 launches for April, signaling optimism for another record-breaking month amid Elon Musk's pop culture dominance and Starlink expansion hype. Driving this sentiment: SpaceX's 2024 trajectory of 28 Q1 orbital launches, recent Falcon 9 successes, and a packed manifest featuring multiple Starlink V2 Mini missions, plus potential Starship hops if FAA approvals align. Key differentiators include weather delays at key sites like Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral, plus any regulatory snags, which could cap totals below 12 (26.5% odds); upcoming T-30 day windows and live-stream buzz will sharpen focus as April unfolds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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