Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current record—July 2023's global surface air temperature anomaly of about +1.0°C above the 20th-century average (per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 data)—driven primarily by NOAA Climate Prediction Center and IRI forecasts showing a 60-70% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July 2026. This phase typically boosts global temperatures 0.1-0.2°C during peak northern summer months like July-August, atop ongoing anthropogenic warming trends exceeding 0.2°C per decade. Early 2026 months ranked 2nd-5th warmest on record but trailed 2023-2024 peaks by 0.1-0.2°C; persistent high sea surface temperatures and recent analyses from scientists like James Hansen and Zeke Hausfather project 2026 among the top years ever, heightening summer record odds. April data and next ENSO update expected soon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$135,389 Vol.
$135,389 Vol.
2027/01/10
はい
$135,389 Vol.
$135,389 Vol.
2027/01/10
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current record—July 2023's global surface air temperature anomaly of about +1.0°C above the 20th-century average (per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 data)—driven primarily by NOAA Climate Prediction Center and IRI forecasts showing a 60-70% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July 2026. This phase typically boosts global temperatures 0.1-0.2°C during peak northern summer months like July-August, atop ongoing anthropogenic warming trends exceeding 0.2°C per decade. Early 2026 months ranked 2nd-5th warmest on record but trailed 2023-2024 peaks by 0.1-0.2°C; persistent high sea surface temperatures and recent analyses from scientists like James Hansen and Zeke Hausfather project 2026 among the top years ever, heightening summer record odds. April data and next ENSO update expected soon.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
音量
$135,389終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current record—July 2023's global surface air temperature anomaly of about +1.0°C above the 20th-century average (per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 data)—driven primarily by NOAA Climate Prediction Center and IRI forecasts showing a 60-70% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July 2026. This phase typically boosts global temperatures 0.1-0.2°C during peak northern summer months like July-August, atop ongoing anthropogenic warming trends exceeding 0.2°C per decade. Early 2026 months ranked 2nd-5th warmest on record but trailed 2023-2024 peaks by 0.1-0.2°C; persistent high sea surface temperatures and recent analyses from scientists like James Hansen and Zeke Hausfather project 2026 among the top years ever, heightening summer record odds. April data and next ENSO update expected soon.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$135,389終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current record—July 2023's global surface air temperature anomaly of about +1.0°C above the 20th-century average (per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 data)—driven primarily by NOAA Climate Prediction Center and IRI forecasts showing a 60-70% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July 2026. This phase typically boosts global temperatures 0.1-0.2°C during peak northern summer months like July-August, atop ongoing anthropogenic warming trends exceeding 0.2°C per decade. Early 2026 months ranked 2nd-5th warmest on record but trailed 2023-2024 peaks by 0.1-0.2°C; persistent high sea surface temperatures and recent analyses from scientists like James Hansen and Zeke Hausfather project 2026 among the top years ever, heightening summer record odds. April data and next ENSO update expected soon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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