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気候と科学·天気

2026年のどの月が史上最も暑い月になるでしょうか？

Market icon
気候と科学·天気

2026年のどの月が史上最も暑い月になるでしょうか？

はい

74% chance
Polymarket

$105,308 Vol.

はい

74% chance
Polymarket

$105,308 Vol.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global surface air temperature record—likely July 2023 or 2024 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by relentless anthropogenic warming trends and evolving ENSO conditions. Copernicus and NOAA reports confirm January and February 2026 ranked fifth-warmest for their months, with anomalies of ~0.51–0.53°C above 1991–2020 baselines despite lingering La Niña effects, while 2025 placed third overall. Forecasts from agencies like Environment Canada and the UK Met Office project 2026 among the top four hottest years, amplified by a transition to ENSO-neutral March–May and rising El Niño odds later, potentially intensifying boreal summer heat. Key uncertainties include model spreads on El Niño strength; watch April's Copernicus bulletin and NOAA updates for refined outlooks.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global surface air temperature record—likely July 2023 or 2024 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by relentless anthropogenic warming trends and evolving ENSO conditions. Copernicus and NOAA reports confirm January and February 2026 ranked fifth-warmest for their months, with anomalies of ~0.51–0.53°C above 1991–2020 baselines despite lingering La Niña effects, while 2025 placed third overall. Forecasts from agencies like Environment Canada and the UK Met Office project 2026 among the top four hottest years, amplified by a transition to ENSO-neutral March–May and rising El Niño odds later, potentially intensifying boreal summer heat. Key uncertainties include model spreads on El Niño strength; watch April's Copernicus bulletin and NOAA updates for refined outlooks.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global surface air temperature record—likely July 2023 or 2024 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by relentless anthropogenic warming trends and evolving ENSO conditions. Copernicus and NOAA reports confirm January and February 2026 ranked fifth-warmest for their months, with anomalies of ~0.51–0.53°C above 1991–2020 baselines despite lingering La Niña effects, while 2025 placed third overall. Forecasts from agencies like Environment Canada and the UK Met Office project 2026 among the top four hottest years, amplified by a transition to ENSO-neutral March–May and rising El Niño odds later, potentially intensifying boreal summer heat. Key uncertainties include model spreads on El Niño strength; watch April's Copernicus bulletin and NOAA updates for refined outlooks.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global surface air temperature record—likely July 2023 or 2024 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by relentless anthropogenic warming trends and evolving ENSO conditions. Copernicus and NOAA reports confirm January and February 2026 ranked fifth-warmest for their months, with anomalies of ~0.51–0.53°C above 1991–2020 baselines despite lingering La Niña effects, while 2025 placed third overall. Forecasts from agencies like Environment Canada and the UK Met Office project 2026 among the top four hottest years, amplified by a transition to ENSO-neutral March–May and rising El Niño odds later, potentially intensifying boreal summer heat. Key uncertainties include model spreads on El Niño strength; watch April's Copernicus bulletin and NOAA updates for refined outlooks.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年のどの月が史上最も暑い月になるでしょうか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年のどの月も過去最高の暑さになるでしょうか？」で74%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、74¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に74%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年のどの月が史上最も暑い月になるでしょうか？」は$105.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 9, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年のどの月が史上最も暑い月になるでしょうか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年のどの月が史上最も暑い月になるでしょうか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「2026年のどの月も過去最高の暑さになるでしょうか？」で74%であり、市場がこの結果に74%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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