Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking second-hottest on record at 53.5% implied probability, with 36.5% for first, driven by NOAA's March report confirming the fourth-warmest January–March globally (+1.19°C above 20th-century average) and March tying 2024 for second-warmest (+1.31°C anomaly). Copernicus data echoes this, noting fourth-warmest March surface air temperatures (13.94°C) and near-record sea surface temperatures amid persistent ocean heat uptake. NOAA's annual outlook projects 98.4% chance of top-five ranking and >99.9% top ten, while traders price higher top-two odds anticipating NOAA CPC's 61% El Niño emergence by mid-2026 boosting late-year warmth—though ENSO-neutral risks through June introduce uncertainty. Upcoming April bulletins and ENSO updates will refine trajectories against baselines from record 2024 and near-record 2025.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2 54%
1 37%
4 4.4%
3 3.8%
$2,640,496 Vol.
$2,640,496 Vol.
2026/12/31
1
37%
2
54%
3
4%
4
4%
5
<1%
6位以下
3%
2 54%
1 37%
4 4.4%
3 3.8%
$2,640,496 Vol.
$2,640,496 Vol.
2026/12/31
1
$418,234 Vol.
37%
2
$293,471 Vol.
54%
3
$390,073 Vol.
4%
4
$387,972 Vol.
4%
5
$702,396 Vol.
<1%
6位以下
$448,351 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking second-hottest on record at 53.5% implied probability, with 36.5% for first, driven by NOAA's March report confirming the fourth-warmest January–March globally (+1.19°C above 20th-century average) and March tying 2024 for second-warmest (+1.31°C anomaly). Copernicus data echoes this, noting fourth-warmest March surface air temperatures (13.94°C) and near-record sea surface temperatures amid persistent ocean heat uptake. NOAA's annual outlook projects 98.4% chance of top-five ranking and >99.9% top ten, while traders price higher top-two odds anticipating NOAA CPC's 61% El Niño emergence by mid-2026 boosting late-year warmth—though ENSO-neutral risks through June introduce uncertainty. Upcoming April bulletins and ENSO updates will refine trajectories against baselines from record 2024 and near-record 2025.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
音量
$2,640,496終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking second-hottest on record at 53.5% implied probability, with 36.5% for first, driven by NOAA's March report confirming the fourth-warmest January–March globally (+1.19°C above 20th-century average) and March tying 2024 for second-warmest (+1.31°C anomaly). Copernicus data echoes this, noting fourth-warmest March surface air temperatures (13.94°C) and near-record sea surface temperatures amid persistent ocean heat uptake. NOAA's annual outlook projects 98.4% chance of top-five ranking and >99.9% top ten, while traders price higher top-two odds anticipating NOAA CPC's 61% El Niño emergence by mid-2026 boosting late-year warmth—though ENSO-neutral risks through June introduce uncertainty. Upcoming April bulletins and ENSO updates will refine trajectories against baselines from record 2024 and near-record 2025.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,640,496終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking second-hottest on record at 53.5% implied probability, with 36.5% for first, driven by NOAA's March report confirming the fourth-warmest January–March globally (+1.19°C above 20th-century average) and March tying 2024 for second-warmest (+1.31°C anomaly). Copernicus data echoes this, noting fourth-warmest March surface air temperatures (13.94°C) and near-record sea surface temperatures amid persistent ocean heat uptake. NOAA's annual outlook projects 98.4% chance of top-five ranking and >99.9% top ten, while traders price higher top-two odds anticipating NOAA CPC's 61% El Niño emergence by mid-2026 boosting late-year warmth—though ENSO-neutral risks through June introduce uncertainty. Upcoming April bulletins and ENSO updates will refine trajectories against baselines from record 2024 and near-record 2025.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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