Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 45.5% implied probability to 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 29.5% to first, driven by an exceptionally warm start to the year despite lingering La Niña cooling effects. NOAA and Copernicus data show January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record globally, with December 2025–March 2026 marking the warmest 121-day streak ever observed, fueled by elevated sea surface temperatures and persistent positive anomalies. Forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicate a 62% chance of El Niño emergence by June–August, potentially amplifying warming through year-end via enhanced atmospheric heat transfer. This positions 2026 to challenge 2024's record amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing, though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty in El Niño intensity; next NOAA monthly report expected mid-April.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2 46%
1 30%
4 14%
3 9.3%
$2,426,590 Vol.
$2,426,590 Vol.
2026/12/31
1
30%
2
46%
3
9%
4
14%
5
1%
6位以下
3%
2 46%
1 30%
4 14%
3 9.3%
$2,426,590 Vol.
$2,426,590 Vol.
2026/12/31
1
$342,205 Vol.
30%
2
$248,607 Vol.
46%
3
$371,511 Vol.
9%
4
$365,572 Vol.
14%
5
$664,318 Vol.
1%
6位以下
$434,377 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 45.5% implied probability to 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 29.5% to first, driven by an exceptionally warm start to the year despite lingering La Niña cooling effects. NOAA and Copernicus data show January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record globally, with December 2025–March 2026 marking the warmest 121-day streak ever observed, fueled by elevated sea surface temperatures and persistent positive anomalies. Forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicate a 62% chance of El Niño emergence by June–August, potentially amplifying warming through year-end via enhanced atmospheric heat transfer. This positions 2026 to challenge 2024's record amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing, though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty in El Niño intensity; next NOAA monthly report expected mid-April.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
音量
$2,426,590終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 45.5% implied probability to 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 29.5% to first, driven by an exceptionally warm start to the year despite lingering La Niña cooling effects. NOAA and Copernicus data show January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record globally, with December 2025–March 2026 marking the warmest 121-day streak ever observed, fueled by elevated sea surface temperatures and persistent positive anomalies. Forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicate a 62% chance of El Niño emergence by June–August, potentially amplifying warming through year-end via enhanced atmospheric heat transfer. This positions 2026 to challenge 2024's record amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing, though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty in El Niño intensity; next NOAA monthly report expected mid-April.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,426,590終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 45.5% implied probability to 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 29.5% to first, driven by an exceptionally warm start to the year despite lingering La Niña cooling effects. NOAA and Copernicus data show January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record globally, with December 2025–March 2026 marking the warmest 121-day streak ever observed, fueled by elevated sea surface temperatures and persistent positive anomalies. Forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicate a 62% chance of El Niño emergence by June–August, potentially amplifying warming through year-end via enhanced atmospheric heat transfer. This positions 2026 to challenge 2024's record amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing, though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty in El Niño intensity; next NOAA monthly report expected mid-April.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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