Traders currently assign a 72.5% implied probability to no natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the lack of elevated alerts or anomalous activity in real-time monitoring from agencies such as NOAA, the National Hurricane Center, and the USGS. With 2026 already underway, seasonal climate indices like ENSO show neutral conditions that do not favor intensified hurricane activity or widespread seismic events beyond historical baselines. Official forecasts indicate typical risk levels for tropical systems and earthquakes, while model consensus points to no immediate triggers for category 3+ landfalls or magnitude 7+ quakes meeting market thresholds. New data releases on storm tracks or fault monitoring in the coming months could alter this sentiment if conditions shift.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$220,804 Vol.
$220,804 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$220,804 Vol.
$220,804 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders currently assign a 72.5% implied probability to no natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the lack of elevated alerts or anomalous activity in real-time monitoring from agencies such as NOAA, the National Hurricane Center, and the USGS. With 2026 already underway, seasonal climate indices like ENSO show neutral conditions that do not favor intensified hurricane activity or widespread seismic events beyond historical baselines. Official forecasts indicate typical risk levels for tropical systems and earthquakes, while model consensus points to no immediate triggers for category 3+ landfalls or magnitude 7+ quakes meeting market thresholds. New data releases on storm tracks or fault monitoring in the coming months could alter this sentiment if conditions shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$220,804終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders currently assign a 72.5% implied probability to no natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the lack of elevated alerts or anomalous activity in real-time monitoring from agencies such as NOAA, the National Hurricane Center, and the USGS. With 2026 already underway, seasonal climate indices like ENSO show neutral conditions that do not favor intensified hurricane activity or widespread seismic events beyond historical baselines. Official forecasts indicate typical risk levels for tropical systems and earthquakes, while model consensus points to no immediate triggers for category 3+ landfalls or magnitude 7+ quakes meeting market thresholds. New data releases on storm tracks or fault monitoring in the coming months could alter this sentiment if conditions shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$220,804終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders currently assign a 72.5% implied probability to no natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the lack of elevated alerts or anomalous activity in real-time monitoring from agencies such as NOAA, the National Hurricane Center, and the USGS. With 2026 already underway, seasonal climate indices like ENSO show neutral conditions that do not favor intensified hurricane activity or widespread seismic events beyond historical baselines. Official forecasts indicate typical risk levels for tropical systems and earthquakes, while model consensus points to no immediate triggers for category 3+ landfalls or magnitude 7+ quakes meeting market thresholds. New data releases on storm tracks or fault monitoring in the coming months could alter this sentiment if conditions shift.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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