Trader sentiment favoring “No” at 73% for a natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of extreme events through mid-year and stable monitoring data. Official NOAA and USGS assessments show typical seasonal activity without the atmospheric or seismic setups needed for rapid intensification or high-magnitude events. Neutral ENSO conditions and recent model consensus point to below-average tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of the year, consistent with historical patterns where major disasters are infrequent. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing volcanic-seismic surveillance will offer the next key data points for any potential shift in conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$221,150 Vol.
$221,150 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$221,150 Vol.
$221,150 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader sentiment favoring “No” at 73% for a natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of extreme events through mid-year and stable monitoring data. Official NOAA and USGS assessments show typical seasonal activity without the atmospheric or seismic setups needed for rapid intensification or high-magnitude events. Neutral ENSO conditions and recent model consensus point to below-average tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of the year, consistent with historical patterns where major disasters are infrequent. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing volcanic-seismic surveillance will offer the next key data points for any potential shift in conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$221,150終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader sentiment favoring “No” at 73% for a natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of extreme events through mid-year and stable monitoring data. Official NOAA and USGS assessments show typical seasonal activity without the atmospheric or seismic setups needed for rapid intensification or high-magnitude events. Neutral ENSO conditions and recent model consensus point to below-average tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of the year, consistent with historical patterns where major disasters are infrequent. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing volcanic-seismic surveillance will offer the next key data points for any potential shift in conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$221,150終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment favoring “No” at 73% for a natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of extreme events through mid-year and stable monitoring data. Official NOAA and USGS assessments show typical seasonal activity without the atmospheric or seismic setups needed for rapid intensification or high-magnitude events. Neutral ENSO conditions and recent model consensus point to below-average tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of the year, consistent with historical patterns where major disasters are infrequent. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing volcanic-seismic surveillance will offer the next key data points for any potential shift in conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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