Trader consensus favoring "No" at 72.5% for a natural disaster in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of extreme events meeting resolution thresholds, such as magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes or volcanic eruptions of VEI 6 or higher. Official monitoring from USGS and global seismic networks shows typical activity levels through May 2026, with recent events limited to smaller-magnitude quakes, floods, and wildfires that fall short of these criteria. Model consensus and climatological baselines indicate minimal near-term risk of rapid intensification into qualifying disasters, though new seismic data releases or volcanic alerts could introduce volatility before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$219,862 Vol.
$219,862 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$219,862 Vol.
$219,862 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 72.5% for a natural disaster in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of extreme events meeting resolution thresholds, such as magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes or volcanic eruptions of VEI 6 or higher. Official monitoring from USGS and global seismic networks shows typical activity levels through May 2026, with recent events limited to smaller-magnitude quakes, floods, and wildfires that fall short of these criteria. Model consensus and climatological baselines indicate minimal near-term risk of rapid intensification into qualifying disasters, though new seismic data releases or volcanic alerts could introduce volatility before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$219,862終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 72.5% for a natural disaster in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of extreme events meeting resolution thresholds, such as magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes or volcanic eruptions of VEI 6 or higher. Official monitoring from USGS and global seismic networks shows typical activity levels through May 2026, with recent events limited to smaller-magnitude quakes, floods, and wildfires that fall short of these criteria. Model consensus and climatological baselines indicate minimal near-term risk of rapid intensification into qualifying disasters, though new seismic data releases or volcanic alerts could introduce volatility before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$219,862終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 72.5% for a natural disaster in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of extreme events meeting resolution thresholds, such as magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes or volcanic eruptions of VEI 6 or higher. Official monitoring from USGS and global seismic networks shows typical activity levels through May 2026, with recent events limited to smaller-magnitude quakes, floods, and wildfires that fall short of these criteria. Model consensus and climatological baselines indicate minimal near-term risk of rapid intensification into qualifying disasters, though new seismic data releases or volcanic alerts could introduce volatility before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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