Trader consensus currently assigns roughly 72% implied probability to “No” for a natural disaster occurring in 2026, reflecting assessment that the event as contractually defined remains unlikely through year-end. Historical frequency data from USGS, NOAA, and global volcanic records show that while moderate seismic, weather, and eruptive events occur regularly, the specific thresholds or combinations required for market resolution have not aligned in recent analogous periods. As of late May 2026, seasonal outlooks from the National Hurricane Center and ENSO monitoring indicate typical rather than extreme conditions, with no confirmed signals of heightened risk for qualifying events in the remaining months. New model runs and agency briefings expected through summer and fall will provide the next key data points for traders to reassess.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$220,804 Vol.
$220,804 Vol.
はい
$220,804 Vol.
$220,804 Vol.
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus currently assigns roughly 72% implied probability to “No” for a natural disaster occurring in 2026, reflecting assessment that the event as contractually defined remains unlikely through year-end. Historical frequency data from USGS, NOAA, and global volcanic records show that while moderate seismic, weather, and eruptive events occur regularly, the specific thresholds or combinations required for market resolution have not aligned in recent analogous periods. As of late May 2026, seasonal outlooks from the National Hurricane Center and ENSO monitoring indicate typical rather than extreme conditions, with no confirmed signals of heightened risk for qualifying events in the remaining months. New model runs and agency briefings expected through summer and fall will provide the next key data points for traders to reassess.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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