Traders assign a 73% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster occurring in 2026 because extreme events meeting typical resolution thresholds—such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or a Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruption—remain statistically rare based on USGS and Smithsonian Institution records. Historical baselines show roughly one VEI-6 eruption per century and 9.0+ quakes occurring globally only a few times per millennium, with no such activity reported in the first five months of 2026 to shift model consensus. Seismic monitoring networks and volcano observatories continue to show background levels of activity, while forecast uncertainties in long-term tectonic and magmatic processes support the current market positioning ahead of potential updates from ongoing global surveillance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$219,932 Vol.
$219,932 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$219,932 Vol.
$219,932 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 73% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster occurring in 2026 because extreme events meeting typical resolution thresholds—such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or a Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruption—remain statistically rare based on USGS and Smithsonian Institution records. Historical baselines show roughly one VEI-6 eruption per century and 9.0+ quakes occurring globally only a few times per millennium, with no such activity reported in the first five months of 2026 to shift model consensus. Seismic monitoring networks and volcano observatories continue to show background levels of activity, while forecast uncertainties in long-term tectonic and magmatic processes support the current market positioning ahead of potential updates from ongoing global surveillance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$219,932終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 73% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster occurring in 2026 because extreme events meeting typical resolution thresholds—such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or a Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruption—remain statistically rare based on USGS and Smithsonian Institution records. Historical baselines show roughly one VEI-6 eruption per century and 9.0+ quakes occurring globally only a few times per millennium, with no such activity reported in the first five months of 2026 to shift model consensus. Seismic monitoring networks and volcano observatories continue to show background levels of activity, while forecast uncertainties in long-term tectonic and magmatic processes support the current market positioning ahead of potential updates from ongoing global surveillance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$219,932終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 73% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster occurring in 2026 because extreme events meeting typical resolution thresholds—such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or a Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruption—remain statistically rare based on USGS and Smithsonian Institution records. Historical baselines show roughly one VEI-6 eruption per century and 9.0+ quakes occurring globally only a few times per millennium, with no such activity reported in the first five months of 2026 to shift model consensus. Seismic monitoring networks and volcano observatories continue to show background levels of activity, while forecast uncertainties in long-term tectonic and magmatic processes support the current market positioning ahead of potential updates from ongoing global surveillance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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