Current observational data from NOAA, USGS, and other agencies show typical seasonal variability in 2026, with multiple regional events such as California wildfires, European floods, and U.S. winter storms already documented but falling short of any singular global-scale threshold. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 73% reflects the market's precise resolution criteria around magnitude, geographic scope, or impact metrics that current conditions have not yet met. Model runs for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing drought monitoring will supply the next major data points, while historical baselines indicate such events occur frequently without necessarily shifting broad market-implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$220,804 Vol.
$220,804 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$220,804 Vol.
$220,804 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current observational data from NOAA, USGS, and other agencies show typical seasonal variability in 2026, with multiple regional events such as California wildfires, European floods, and U.S. winter storms already documented but falling short of any singular global-scale threshold. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 73% reflects the market's precise resolution criteria around magnitude, geographic scope, or impact metrics that current conditions have not yet met. Model runs for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing drought monitoring will supply the next major data points, while historical baselines indicate such events occur frequently without necessarily shifting broad market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$220,804終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current observational data from NOAA, USGS, and other agencies show typical seasonal variability in 2026, with multiple regional events such as California wildfires, European floods, and U.S. winter storms already documented but falling short of any singular global-scale threshold. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 73% reflects the market's precise resolution criteria around magnitude, geographic scope, or impact metrics that current conditions have not yet met. Model runs for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing drought monitoring will supply the next major data points, while historical baselines indicate such events occur frequently without necessarily shifting broad market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$220,804終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current observational data from NOAA, USGS, and other agencies show typical seasonal variability in 2026, with multiple regional events such as California wildfires, European floods, and U.S. winter storms already documented but falling short of any singular global-scale threshold. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 73% reflects the market's precise resolution criteria around magnitude, geographic scope, or impact metrics that current conditions have not yet met. Model runs for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing drought monitoring will supply the next major data points, while historical baselines indicate such events occur frequently without necessarily shifting broad market-implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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