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気候と科学·地震

2026年の大規模な火山噴火（ VEI ≥ 4 ）は何回ですか？

Market icon
気候と科学·地震

2026年の大規模な火山噴火（ VEI ≥ 4 ）は何回ですか？

0 38%

1 34%

2 7.9%

3 3.7%

Polymarket

$638,313 Vol.

0 38%

1 34%

2 7.9%

3 3.7%

Polymarket

$638,313 Vol.

0

$373,221 Vol.

38%

1

$235,619 Vol.

34%

2

$17,860 Vol.

8%

3

$0 Vol.

4%

4

$11,613 Vol.

2%

5+

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits closely between zero (37.5%) and one (33.5%) large Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions in 2026, driven by the complete absence of such events through late March despite monitoring 45 ongoing eruptions worldwide via the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. VEI ≥4 requires over 0.1 cubic kilometers of dense-rock equivalent ejecta and plumes exceeding 10 km, far beyond current low-level Strombolian and Vulcanian activity at sites like Kīlauea, Sheveluch, and Semeru—where dome growth, ash plumes to 11 km, and pyroclastic flows remain sub-threshold. Historical rates of 1–3 annually fuel the split: zero favors subdued global seismicity and no major precursors, while one anticipates statistical norms amid nine months left. Weekly reports track escalating unrest.

Trader consensus on Polymarket splits closely between zero (37.5%) and one (33.5%) large Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions in 2026, driven by the complete absence of such events through late March despite monitoring 45 ongoing eruptions worldwide via the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. VEI ≥4 requires over 0.1 cubic kilometers of dense-rock equivalent ejecta and plumes exceeding 10 km, far beyond current low-level Strombolian and Vulcanian activity at sites like Kīlauea, Sheveluch, and Semeru—where dome growth, ash plumes to 11 km, and pyroclastic flows remain sub-threshold. Historical rates of 1–3 annually fuel the split: zero favors subdued global seismicity and no major precursors, while one anticipates statistical norms amid nine months left. Weekly reports track escalating unrest.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits closely between zero (37.5%) and one (33.5%) large Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions in 2026, driven by the complete absence of such events through late March despite monitoring 45 ongoing eruptions worldwide via the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. VEI ≥4 requires over 0.1 cubic kilometers of dense-rock equivalent ejecta and plumes exceeding 10 km, far beyond current low-level Strombolian and Vulcanian activity at sites like Kīlauea, Sheveluch, and Semeru—where dome growth, ash plumes to 11 km, and pyroclastic flows remain sub-threshold. Historical rates of 1–3 annually fuel the split: zero favors subdued global seismicity and no major precursors, while one anticipates statistical norms amid nine months left. Weekly reports track escalating unrest.

Trader consensus on Polymarket splits closely between zero (37.5%) and one (33.5%) large Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions in 2026, driven by the complete absence of such events through late March despite monitoring 45 ongoing eruptions worldwide via the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. VEI ≥4 requires over 0.1 cubic kilometers of dense-rock equivalent ejecta and plumes exceeding 10 km, far beyond current low-level Strombolian and Vulcanian activity at sites like Kīlauea, Sheveluch, and Semeru—where dome growth, ash plumes to 11 km, and pyroclastic flows remain sub-threshold. Historical rates of 1–3 annually fuel the split: zero favors subdued global seismicity and no major precursors, while one anticipates statistical norms amid nine months left. Weekly reports track escalating unrest.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年の大規模な火山噴火（ VEI ≥ 4 ）は何回ですか？」はPolymarket上の6個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「0」で38%、次いで「1」が34%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、38¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に38%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年の大規模な火山噴火（ VEI ≥ 4 ）は何回ですか？」は$638.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 2, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年の大規模な火山噴火（ VEI ≥ 4 ）は何回ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている6個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年の大規模な火山噴火（ VEI ≥ 4 ）は何回ですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「0」で38%であり、市場がこの結果に38%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1」で34%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年の大規模な火山噴火（ VEI ≥ 4 ）は何回ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。