Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 54.5% implied probability through early May 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 total eruptions this year—all below VEI 3—with no VEI ≥4 events despite ongoing unrest at sites like Mayon and Semeru. This absence aligns with historical baselines of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 eruptions annually worldwide, driven by sporadic magma accumulation and degassing dynamics rather than systematic increases in activity. Recent weekly GVP reports highlight continued low-level explosions and pyroclastic flows but no escalation to sub-Plinian scales required for VEI 4 (≥0.1 km³ ejecta). Uncertainties persist from unmonitored regions, with probabilities for one eruption (38.5%) capturing potential late-year developments; monitor GVP updates for revised assessments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0 55%
1 39%
2 4.9%
3 1.1%
$1,066,644 Vol.
$1,066,644 Vol.
2026/12/31
0
55%
1
39%
2
5%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 55%
1 39%
2 4.9%
3 1.1%
$1,066,644 Vol.
$1,066,644 Vol.
2026/12/31
0
$475,338 Vol.
55%
1
$259,909 Vol.
39%
2
$30,361 Vol.
5%
3
$25,551 Vol.
1%
4
$23,487 Vol.
<1%
5+
$251,998 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 54.5% implied probability through early May 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 total eruptions this year—all below VEI 3—with no VEI ≥4 events despite ongoing unrest at sites like Mayon and Semeru. This absence aligns with historical baselines of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 eruptions annually worldwide, driven by sporadic magma accumulation and degassing dynamics rather than systematic increases in activity. Recent weekly GVP reports highlight continued low-level explosions and pyroclastic flows but no escalation to sub-Plinian scales required for VEI 4 (≥0.1 km³ ejecta). Uncertainties persist from unmonitored regions, with probabilities for one eruption (38.5%) capturing potential late-year developments; monitor GVP updates for revised assessments.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
音量
$1,066,644終了日
2027/03/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 54.5% implied probability through early May 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 total eruptions this year—all below VEI 3—with no VEI ≥4 events despite ongoing unrest at sites like Mayon and Semeru. This absence aligns with historical baselines of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 eruptions annually worldwide, driven by sporadic magma accumulation and degassing dynamics rather than systematic increases in activity. Recent weekly GVP reports highlight continued low-level explosions and pyroclastic flows but no escalation to sub-Plinian scales required for VEI 4 (≥0.1 km³ ejecta). Uncertainties persist from unmonitored regions, with probabilities for one eruption (38.5%) capturing potential late-year developments; monitor GVP updates for revised assessments.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
音量
$1,066,644終了日
2027/03/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 54.5% implied probability through early May 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 total eruptions this year—all below VEI 3—with no VEI ≥4 events despite ongoing unrest at sites like Mayon and Semeru. This absence aligns with historical baselines of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 eruptions annually worldwide, driven by sporadic magma accumulation and degassing dynamics rather than systematic increases in activity. Recent weekly GVP reports highlight continued low-level explosions and pyroclastic flows but no escalation to sub-Plinian scales required for VEI 4 (≥0.1 km³ ejecta). Uncertainties persist from unmonitored regions, with probabilities for one eruption (38.5%) capturing potential late-year developments; monitor GVP updates for revised assessments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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