NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA risk lists show no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) on a collision course with Earth in 2026 capable of releasing 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~15-meter bolide airburst like a scaled-down Chelyabinsk event. Recent safe flybys in March—such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 at 198,000 miles and car-sized 2026 FM3—reinforce this monitoring efficacy without impact risks. Trader consensus at 93.2% "No" reflects historical rarity (one major event per decade on average) and comprehensive surveys by ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO discovered late or an unobserved sporadic meteoroid, though probabilities remain low amid ongoing observations through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA risk lists show no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) on a collision course with Earth in 2026 capable of releasing 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~15-meter bolide airburst like a scaled-down Chelyabinsk event. Recent safe flybys in March—such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 at 198,000 miles and car-sized 2026 FM3—reinforce this monitoring efficacy without impact risks. Trader consensus at 93.2% "No" reflects historical rarity (one major event per decade on average) and comprehensive surveys by ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO discovered late or an unobserved sporadic meteoroid, though probabilities remain low amid ongoing observations through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
音量
$6,475終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA risk lists show no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) on a collision course with Earth in 2026 capable of releasing 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~15-meter bolide airburst like a scaled-down Chelyabinsk event. Recent safe flybys in March—such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 at 198,000 miles and car-sized 2026 FM3—reinforce this monitoring efficacy without impact risks. Trader consensus at 93.2% "No" reflects historical rarity (one major event per decade on average) and comprehensive surveys by ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO discovered late or an unobserved sporadic meteoroid, though probabilities remain low amid ongoing observations through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$6,475終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA risk lists show no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) on a collision course with Earth in 2026 capable of releasing 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~15-meter bolide airburst like a scaled-down Chelyabinsk event. Recent safe flybys in March—such as bus-sized 2026 EG1 at 198,000 miles and car-sized 2026 FM3—reinforce this monitoring efficacy without impact risks. Trader consensus at 93.2% "No" reflects historical rarity (one major event per decade on average) and comprehensive surveys by ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO discovered late or an unobserved sporadic meteoroid, though probabilities remain low amid ongoing observations through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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