Trader consensus centers on 160-179 SpaceX launches in 2026 at 37.5% implied probability, propelled by the company's accelerating Falcon 9 cadence—already exceeding 130 orbital attempts in 2024—and massive Starlink satellite production scaling to thousands per month via the Starfactory. Reusability milestones, with over 450 booster landings and rapid turnaround times under 30 days, underpin projections for three pads sustaining 5-6 weekly flights, while Starship's maturation from integrated flight tests promises supplementary capacity by mid-decade. Lower bins fade amid low historical failure rates (under 1% for Falcon) and negligible regulatory bottlenecks, though anomaly risks or supply chain hiccups could cap at 140-159 (29.3%). Key differentiator: Starship orbital cadence ramp-up versus sustained Falcon dominance.