Trader consensus centers on 140-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026, with 160-179 edging out at 32.5% implied probability, driven by the company's record 134 launches in 2024 and projected 170+ in 2025 from escalating Starlink V3 constellation deployments requiring high-cadence Falcon 9 missions. Starship's Flight 5 success in October 2024, featuring reusable Super Heavy catch, elevates 200+ odds to 18% by promising exponential capacity growth via rapid turnaround and orbital refueling demos expected in 2025. Differentiators include FAA licensing delays, booster production rates, and launch pad constraints at LC-39A/SLC-40, which cap near-term scaling below 180 absent flawless Starship maturation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2026年にSpaceXは何回打ち上げられますか?
2026年にSpaceXは何回打ち上げられますか?
160〜179 33%
140~159 30.8%
200回以上 18%
180~199 16.2%
$228,959 Vol.
$228,959 Vol.
100未満
<1%
100~119
1%
120〜139
6%
140~159
31%
160〜179
33%
180~199
16%
200回以上
17%
160〜179 33%
140~159 30.8%
200回以上 18%
180~199 16.2%
$228,959 Vol.
$228,959 Vol.
100未満
<1%
100~119
1%
120〜139
6%
140~159
31%
160〜179
33%
180~199
16%
200回以上
17%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
マーケット開始日: Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus centers on 140-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026, with 160-179 edging out at 32.5% implied probability, driven by the company's record 134 launches in 2024 and projected 170+ in 2025 from escalating Starlink V3 constellation deployments requiring high-cadence Falcon 9 missions. Starship's Flight 5 success in October 2024, featuring reusable Super Heavy catch, elevates 200+ odds to 18% by promising exponential capacity growth via rapid turnaround and orbital refueling demos expected in 2025. Differentiators include FAA licensing delays, booster production rates, and launch pad constraints at LC-39A/SLC-40, which cap near-term scaling below 180 absent flawless Starship maturation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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