SpaceX's sustained Falcon 9 launch cadence through early May 2026, with over 50 orbital missions completed by late April—primarily Starlink deployments—has solidified trader consensus around 160-179 total launches for the year, implying a 47.5% probability for this range. This pace, roughly matching 2025's record 165 flights, stems from high booster reusability rates exceeding 90% and expanded production at multiple sites including Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Starbase. Recent milestones, like the 50th launch on April 27 amid dense Starlink manifests, underscore reliability despite minor weather delays, while Starship's ongoing Flight Tests could add 5-10 missions if orbital refueling demos succeed. Traders eye FAA approvals and Q3-Q4 schedules for potential upside to 180+, with model consensus projecting 145-170 based on historical analogs. Next manifest updates expected mid-May.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年にSpaceXは何回打ち上げられますか？
2026年にSpaceXは何回打ち上げられますか？
160〜179 47%
140～159 31.1%
180～199 9.9%
200回以上 5%
$300,886 Vol.
$300,886 Vol.
100未満
1%
100～119
<1%
120〜139
1%
140～159
31%
160〜179
47%
180～199
12%
200回以上
5%
160〜179 47%
140～159 31.1%
180～199 9.9%
200回以上 5%
$300,886 Vol.
$300,886 Vol.
100未満
1%
100～119
<1%
120〜139
1%
140～159
31%
160〜179
47%
180～199
12%
200回以上
5%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
マーケット開始日： Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's sustained Falcon 9 launch cadence through early May 2026, with over 50 orbital missions completed by late April—primarily Starlink deployments—has solidified trader consensus around 160-179 total launches for the year, implying a 47.5% probability for this range. This pace, roughly matching 2025's record 165 flights, stems from high booster reusability rates exceeding 90% and expanded production at multiple sites including Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Starbase. Recent milestones, like the 50th launch on April 27 amid dense Starlink manifests, underscore reliability despite minor weather delays, while Starship's ongoing Flight Tests could add 5-10 missions if orbital refueling demos succeed. Traders eye FAA approvals and Q3-Q4 schedules for potential upside to 180+, with model consensus projecting 145-170 based on historical analogs. Next manifest updates expected mid-May.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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