Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, with "No" at 91.5% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of credible signals from Elon Musk or company leadership amid their divergent focuses—Tesla on robotaxi development and full self-driving software delays, SpaceX on Starship launches and Starlink expansion. Recent weeks featured Musk's Colossus supercomputer rollout for xAI and Tesla's shareholder approval of his pay package, but zero merger filings, leaks, or statements, compounded by formidable antitrust scrutiny from FTC and DOJ on Musk's corporate empire. While a surprise Musk tweet could spark volatility, regulatory prep and valuation mismatches make it improbable before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$133,351 Vol.
$133,351 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$133,351 Vol.
$133,351 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, with "No" at 91.5% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of credible signals from Elon Musk or company leadership amid their divergent focuses—Tesla on robotaxi development and full self-driving software delays, SpaceX on Starship launches and Starlink expansion. Recent weeks featured Musk's Colossus supercomputer rollout for xAI and Tesla's shareholder approval of his pay package, but zero merger filings, leaks, or statements, compounded by formidable antitrust scrutiny from FTC and DOJ on Musk's corporate empire. While a surprise Musk tweet could spark volatility, regulatory prep and valuation mismatches make it improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
音量
$133,351終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, with "No" at 91.5% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of credible signals from Elon Musk or company leadership amid their divergent focuses—Tesla on robotaxi development and full self-driving software delays, SpaceX on Starship launches and Starlink expansion. Recent weeks featured Musk's Colossus supercomputer rollout for xAI and Tesla's shareholder approval of his pay package, but zero merger filings, leaks, or statements, compounded by formidable antitrust scrutiny from FTC and DOJ on Musk's corporate empire. While a surprise Musk tweet could spark volatility, regulatory prep and valuation mismatches make it improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$133,351終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, with "No" at 91.5% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of credible signals from Elon Musk or company leadership amid their divergent focuses—Tesla on robotaxi development and full self-driving software delays, SpaceX on Starship launches and Starlink expansion. Recent weeks featured Musk's Colossus supercomputer rollout for xAI and Tesla's shareholder approval of his pay package, but zero merger filings, leaks, or statements, compounded by formidable antitrust scrutiny from FTC and DOJ on Musk's corporate empire. While a surprise Musk tweet could spark volatility, regulatory prep and valuation mismatches make it improbable before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問