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icon for イーロン・ブル・ラン・パーレイ

イーロン・ブル・ラン・パーレイ

icon for イーロン・ブル・ラン・パーレイ

イーロン・ブル・ラン・パーレイ

はい

6% 確率
Polymarket

$10,312 Vol.

はい

6% 確率
Polymarket

$10,312 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign a 93% implied probability to “No” on the Elon Bull Run Parlay because the market requires simultaneous achievement of multiple high-bar milestones—including Elon Musk reaching trillionaire status, another personal milestone, and outsized gains across Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI—within a single calendar year. Recent developments such as SpaceX’s integration of xAI into its SpaceXAI division, the filing for a June 2026 IPO targeting multi-trillion-dollar valuation, and Grok’s new coding-agent release have boosted individual company momentum, yet execution risks around regulatory approvals, hardware scaling for orbital data centers, and competitive pressure from other large language model developers keep the full parlay remote. A surprise Tesla robotaxi launch or rapid Starship cadence could narrow the gap, but historical timelines for comparable milestones suggest limited room for all legs to clear before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
音量
$10,312
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign a 93% implied probability to “No” on the Elon Bull Run Parlay because the market requires simultaneous achievement of multiple high-bar milestones—including Elon Musk reaching trillionaire status, another personal milestone, and outsized gains across Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI—within a single calendar year. Recent developments such as SpaceX’s integration of xAI into its SpaceXAI division, the filing for a June 2026 IPO targeting multi-trillion-dollar valuation, and Grok’s new coding-agent release have boosted individual company momentum, yet execution risks around regulatory approvals, hardware scaling for orbital data centers, and competitive pressure from other large language model developers keep the full parlay remote. A surprise Tesla robotaxi launch or rapid Starship cadence could narrow the gap, but historical timelines for comparable milestones suggest limited room for all legs to clear before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
音量
$10,312
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「イーロン・ブル・ラン・パーレイ」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イーロン・ブルラン・パーレイ」で6%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、6¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に6%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イーロン・ブル・ラン・パーレイ」は$10.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Feb 6, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イーロン・ブル・ラン・パーレイ」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「イーロン・ブル・ラン・パーレイ」の現在のリーダーは「イーロン・ブルラン・パーレイ」でわずか6%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イーロン・ブル・ラン・パーレイ」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。