Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX going public first, with 92% implied probability reflecting its advanced IPO preparations amid a merger with Elon Musk's xAI, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and early June 2026 listing. Recent reports confirm SpaceX's confidential filing, late-May prospectus release, and June 8 roadshow, positioning it months ahead of OpenAI's targeted Q4 2026 debut. OpenAI faces investor scrutiny over its $852 billion valuation and high cash burn despite record funding, with CFO Sarah Friar noting retail share allocation but no accelerated timeline. While SpaceX's rocket reusability milestones bolster momentum, potential delays from regulatory reviews or volatile markets could open the door for OpenAI to surge ahead if enterprise revenue growth prompts an earlier exit.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日SpaceX
$69,280 Vol.
$69,280 Vol.
2027/12/31
SpaceX
$69,280 Vol.
$69,280 Vol.
2027/12/31
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX going public first, with 92% implied probability reflecting its advanced IPO preparations amid a merger with Elon Musk's xAI, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and early June 2026 listing. Recent reports confirm SpaceX's confidential filing, late-May prospectus release, and June 8 roadshow, positioning it months ahead of OpenAI's targeted Q4 2026 debut. OpenAI faces investor scrutiny over its $852 billion valuation and high cash burn despite record funding, with CFO Sarah Friar noting retail share allocation but no accelerated timeline. While SpaceX's rocket reusability milestones bolster momentum, potential delays from regulatory reviews or volatile markets could open the door for OpenAI to surge ahead if enterprise revenue growth prompts an earlier exit.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
音量
$69,280終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX going public first, with 92% implied probability reflecting its advanced IPO preparations amid a merger with Elon Musk's xAI, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and early June 2026 listing. Recent reports confirm SpaceX's confidential filing, late-May prospectus release, and June 8 roadshow, positioning it months ahead of OpenAI's targeted Q4 2026 debut. OpenAI faces investor scrutiny over its $852 billion valuation and high cash burn despite record funding, with CFO Sarah Friar noting retail share allocation but no accelerated timeline. While SpaceX's rocket reusability milestones bolster momentum, potential delays from regulatory reviews or volatile markets could open the door for OpenAI to surge ahead if enterprise revenue growth prompts an earlier exit.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$69,280終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX going public first, with 92% implied probability reflecting its advanced IPO preparations amid a merger with Elon Musk's xAI, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and early June 2026 listing. Recent reports confirm SpaceX's confidential filing, late-May prospectus release, and June 8 roadshow, positioning it months ahead of OpenAI's targeted Q4 2026 debut. OpenAI faces investor scrutiny over its $852 billion valuation and high cash burn despite record funding, with CFO Sarah Friar noting retail share allocation but no accelerated timeline. While SpaceX's rocket reusability milestones bolster momentum, potential delays from regulatory reviews or volatile markets could open the door for OpenAI to surge ahead if enterprise revenue growth prompts an earlier exit.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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