Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" on X facing a ban in any European country by year-end, driven by X's recent compliance with the European Commission's €120 million Digital Services Act (DSA) fine deadline in mid-March 2026. The penalty stemmed from transparency lapses in verification badges, ad reporting, and data access—issues X addressed via a submitted compliance proposal now under EU review, averting escalation. Ongoing legal challenges to the fine at Europe's top court further signal resistance without ban risks, amid Brussels' cautions against national overreach on platforms. Absent new DSA violations or geopolitical shifts, traders anticipate continued fines over outright prohibitions, with key watchpoints including court rulings and Q2 regulatory updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" on X facing a ban in any European country by year-end, driven by X's recent compliance with the European Commission's €120 million Digital Services Act (DSA) fine deadline in mid-March 2026. The penalty stemmed from transparency lapses in verification badges, ad reporting, and data access—issues X addressed via a submitted compliance proposal now under EU review, averting escalation. Ongoing legal challenges to the fine at Europe's top court further signal resistance without ban risks, amid Brussels' cautions against national overreach on platforms. Absent new DSA violations or geopolitical shifts, traders anticipate continued fines over outright prohibitions, with key watchpoints including court rulings and Q2 regulatory updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" on X facing a ban in any European country by year-end, driven by X's recent compliance with the European Commission's €120 million Digital Services Act (DSA) fine deadline in mid-March 2026. The penalty stemmed from transparency lapses in verification badges, ad reporting, and data access—issues X addressed via a submitted compliance proposal now under EU review, averting escalation. Ongoing legal challenges to the fine at Europe's top court further signal resistance without ban risks, amid Brussels' cautions against national overreach on platforms. Absent new DSA violations or geopolitical shifts, traders anticipate continued fines over outright prohibitions, with key watchpoints including court rulings and Q2 regulatory updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" on X facing a ban in any European country by year-end, driven by X's recent compliance with the European Commission's €120 million Digital Services Act (DSA) fine deadline in mid-March 2026. The penalty stemmed from transparency lapses in verification badges, ad reporting, and data access—issues X addressed via a submitted compliance proposal now under EU review, averting escalation. Ongoing legal challenges to the fine at Europe's top court further signal resistance without ban risks, amid Brussels' cautions against national overreach on platforms. Absent new DSA violations or geopolitical shifts, traders anticipate continued fines over outright prohibitions, with key watchpoints including court rulings and Q2 regulatory updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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