SpaceX shares, which debuted via IPO in mid-June 2026 at $135 with an initial ~$1.8 trillion valuation, experienced sharp post-IPO volatility before closing July 31 near $108. The decline reflected profit-taking after an early surge above $225, coupled with concerns over stretched multiples—trading near 50x estimated 2026 revenue despite 2025 losses of $4.9 billion on under $19 billion in sales. Institutional selling accelerated as realistic paths to $3 trillion targets appeared mathematically implausible amid execution risks in Starlink and Starship scaling. This price trajectory produced the observed 76% market-implied probability for a lower July 31 close versus end-June levels.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日上がる
5% 確率
$153 Vol.
$153 Vol.
2026/07/31
上がる
5% 確率
$153 Vol.
$153 Vol.
2026/07/31
This market will resolve to “Up” if SpaceX's (SPCX) closing share price on the last trading day of July 2026 is greater than or equal to its closing share price on the last trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “Down.”
The official closing price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the closing share price for the purposes of this market. The IPO offer price, or the price of any transaction not on the primary exchange, will not count for resolution of this market.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on either specified day of SpaceX trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published for either specified day, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the specified day for purposes of this market.SpaceX shares, which debuted via IPO in mid-June 2026 at $135 with an initial ~$1.8 trillion valuation, experienced sharp post-IPO volatility before closing July 31 near $108. The decline reflected profit-taking after an early surge above $225, coupled with concerns over stretched multiples—trading near 50x estimated 2026 revenue despite 2025 losses of $4.9 billion on under $19 billion in sales. Institutional selling accelerated as realistic paths to $3 trillion targets appeared mathematically implausible amid execution risks in Starlink and Starship scaling. This price trajectory produced the observed 76% market-implied probability for a lower July 31 close versus end-June levels.
This market will resolve to “Up” if SpaceX's (SPCX) closing share price on the last trading day of July 2026 is greater than or equal to its closing share price on the last trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “Down.”
The official closing price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the closing share price for the purposes of this market. The IPO offer price, or the price of any transaction not on the primary exchange, will not count for resolution of this market.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on either specified day of SpaceX trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published for either specified day, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the specified day for purposes of this market.
The official closing price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the closing share price for the purposes of this market. The IPO offer price, or the price of any transaction not on the primary exchange, will not count for resolution of this market.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on either specified day of SpaceX trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published for either specified day, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the specified day for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Jul 1, 2026, 3:59 PM ET
音量
$153終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 3:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: 下がる
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: 下がる
This market will resolve to “Up” if SpaceX's (SPCX) closing share price on the last trading day of July 2026 is greater than or equal to its closing share price on the last trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “Down.”
The official closing price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the closing share price for the purposes of this market. The IPO offer price, or the price of any transaction not on the primary exchange, will not count for resolution of this market.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on either specified day of SpaceX trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published for either specified day, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the specified day for purposes of this market.SpaceX shares, which debuted via IPO in mid-June 2026 at $135 with an initial ~$1.8 trillion valuation, experienced sharp post-IPO volatility before closing July 31 near $108. The decline reflected profit-taking after an early surge above $225, coupled with concerns over stretched multiples—trading near 50x estimated 2026 revenue despite 2025 losses of $4.9 billion on under $19 billion in sales. Institutional selling accelerated as realistic paths to $3 trillion targets appeared mathematically implausible amid execution risks in Starlink and Starship scaling. This price trajectory produced the observed 76% market-implied probability for a lower July 31 close versus end-June levels.
This market will resolve to “Up” if SpaceX's (SPCX) closing share price on the last trading day of July 2026 is greater than or equal to its closing share price on the last trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “Down.”
The official closing price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the closing share price for the purposes of this market. The IPO offer price, or the price of any transaction not on the primary exchange, will not count for resolution of this market.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on either specified day of SpaceX trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published for either specified day, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the specified day for purposes of this market.
The official closing price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the closing share price for the purposes of this market. The IPO offer price, or the price of any transaction not on the primary exchange, will not count for resolution of this market.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on either specified day of SpaceX trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published for either specified day, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the specified day for purposes of this market.
音量
$153終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 3:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: 下がる
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: 下がる
SpaceX shares, which debuted via IPO in mid-June 2026 at $135 with an initial ~$1.8 trillion valuation, experienced sharp post-IPO volatility before closing July 31 near $108. The decline reflected profit-taking after an early surge above $225, coupled with concerns over stretched multiples—trading near 50x estimated 2026 revenue despite 2025 losses of $4.9 billion on under $19 billion in sales. Institutional selling accelerated as realistic paths to $3 trillion targets appeared mathematically implausible amid execution risks in Starlink and Starship scaling. This price trajectory produced the observed 76% market-implied probability for a lower July 31 close versus end-June levels.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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