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テクノロジー·イーロン・マスク

イーロン・マスク氏は2026年にトランプ政権に復帰するのか？

Market icon
テクノロジー·イーロン・マスク

イーロン・マスク氏は2026年にトランプ政権に復帰するのか？

Dec 31

Dec 31

はい

14% chance
Polymarket
NEW

はい

14% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for Elon Musk rejoining the Trump Administration in 2026, driven primarily by his formal exit from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) role in May 2025 after a 130-day limit as a special government employee, amid policy clashes over EV tax credits and spending bills that sparked a summer feud. Despite recent reconciliation—highlighted by Musk's inclusion on a March 27 Trump-Modi call on the Iran crisis and his January pledges to fund GOP midterms—Musk has prioritized his tech empire, advancing Tesla robotaxi unveilings, xAI's Grok large language model benchmarks, and SpaceX Starship launches under favorable regulatory shifts. Formal reappointment barriers, including conflict-of-interest rules for his government-contracted firms, sustain skepticism, with 2026 midterms as a key informal influence point absent official nominations.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for Elon Musk rejoining the Trump Administration in 2026, driven primarily by his formal exit from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) role in May 2025 after a 130-day limit as a special government employee, amid policy clashes over EV tax credits and spending bills that sparked a summer feud. Despite recent reconciliation—highlighted by Musk's inclusion on a March 27 Trump-Modi call on the Iran crisis and his January pledges to fund GOP midterms—Musk has prioritized his tech empire, advancing Tesla robotaxi unveilings, xAI's Grok large language model benchmarks, and SpaceX Starship launches under favorable regulatory shifts. Formal reappointment barriers, including conflict-of-interest rules for his government-contracted firms, sustain skepticism, with 2026 midterms as a key informal influence point absent official nominations.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for Elon Musk rejoining the Trump Administration in 2026, driven primarily by his formal exit from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) role in May 2025 after a 130-day limit as a special government employee, amid policy clashes over EV tax credits and spending bills that sparked a summer feud. Despite recent reconciliation—highlighted by Musk's inclusion on a March 27 Trump-Modi call on the Iran crisis and his January pledges to fund GOP midterms—Musk has prioritized his tech empire, advancing Tesla robotaxi unveilings, xAI's Grok large language model benchmarks, and SpaceX Starship launches under favorable regulatory shifts. Formal reappointment barriers, including conflict-of-interest rules for his government-contracted firms, sustain skepticism, with 2026 midterms as a key informal influence point absent official nominations.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for Elon Musk rejoining the Trump Administration in 2026, driven primarily by his formal exit from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) role in May 2025 after a 130-day limit as a special government employee, amid policy clashes over EV tax credits and spending bills that sparked a summer feud. Despite recent reconciliation—highlighted by Musk's inclusion on a March 27 Trump-Modi call on the Iran crisis and his January pledges to fund GOP midterms—Musk has prioritized his tech empire, advancing Tesla robotaxi unveilings, xAI's Grok large language model benchmarks, and SpaceX Starship launches under favorable regulatory shifts. Formal reappointment barriers, including conflict-of-interest rules for his government-contracted firms, sustain skepticism, with 2026 midterms as a key informal influence point absent official nominations.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「イーロン・マスク氏は2026年にトランプ政権に復帰するのか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イーロン・マスクは2026年にトランプ政権に再び加わりますか？」で14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、14¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に14%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「イーロン・マスク氏は2026年にトランプ政権に復帰するのか？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Jan 7, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

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「イーロン・マスク氏は2026年にトランプ政権に復帰するのか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「イーロン・マスクは2026年にトランプ政権に再び加わりますか？」で14%であり、市場がこの結果に14%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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