SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1 has driven trader consensus toward a June IPO, pricing an implied 58.5% probability for that month amid a standard 8-12 week regulatory review and roadshow timeline aligning with mid-June targets floated by Bloomberg and Reuters. Surging Starlink subscriber growth and the recent xAI merger have bolstered valuation expectations above $1.75 trillion—potentially the largest ever—elevating July to 19.6% as a minor delay contingency, while earlier months like May and April languish below 3% due to insufficient lead time. Polymarket odds reflect skin-in-the-game optimism on regulatory progress, with key catalysts including SEC feedback and investor roadshows ahead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日6月 59%
7月 18.5%
8月 10.2%
9月 8.1%
$163,266 Vol.
$163,266 Vol.
2026/12/31
4月
1%
5月
2%
6月
59%
7月
20%
8月
10%
9月
8%
10月
1%
11月
1%
12月
1%
2027年以前にIPOなし
7%
6月 59%
7月 18.5%
8月 10.2%
9月 8.1%
$163,266 Vol.
$163,266 Vol.
2026/12/31
4月
$20,865 Vol.
1%
5月
$10,417 Vol.
2%
6月
$64,285 Vol.
59%
7月
$1,823 Vol.
20%
8月
$1,607 Vol.
10%
9月
$2,539 Vol.
8%
10月
$2,268 Vol.
1%
11月
$1,375 Vol.
1%
12月
$1,481 Vol.
1%
2027年以前にIPOなし
$3,526 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1 has driven trader consensus toward a June IPO, pricing an implied 58.5% probability for that month amid a standard 8-12 week regulatory review and roadshow timeline aligning with mid-June targets floated by Bloomberg and Reuters. Surging Starlink subscriber growth and the recent xAI merger have bolstered valuation expectations above $1.75 trillion—potentially the largest ever—elevating July to 19.6% as a minor delay contingency, while earlier months like May and April languish below 3% due to insufficient lead time. Polymarket odds reflect skin-in-the-game optimism on regulatory progress, with key catalysts including SEC feedback and investor roadshows ahead.
This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
マーケット開始日： Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
音量
$163,266終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1 has driven trader consensus toward a June IPO, pricing an implied 58.5% probability for that month amid a standard 8-12 week regulatory review and roadshow timeline aligning with mid-June targets floated by Bloomberg and Reuters. Surging Starlink subscriber growth and the recent xAI merger have bolstered valuation expectations above $1.75 trillion—potentially the largest ever—elevating July to 19.6% as a minor delay contingency, while earlier months like May and April languish below 3% due to insufficient lead time. Polymarket odds reflect skin-in-the-game optimism on regulatory progress, with key catalysts including SEC feedback and investor roadshows ahead.
This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
音量
$163,266終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1 has driven trader consensus toward a June IPO, pricing an implied 58.5% probability for that month amid a standard 8-12 week regulatory review and roadshow timeline aligning with mid-June targets floated by Bloomberg and Reuters. Surging Starlink subscriber growth and the recent xAI merger have bolstered valuation expectations above $1.75 trillion—potentially the largest ever—elevating July to 19.6% as a minor delay contingency, while earlier months like May and April languish below 3% due to insufficient lead time. Polymarket odds reflect skin-in-the-game optimism on regulatory progress, with key catalysts including SEC feedback and investor roadshows ahead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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