Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a NASDAQ listing for SpaceX at 95.5% implied probability, driven by the exchange's recent rule changes—implemented in early May 2026—allowing mega-IPOs like SpaceX immediate inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index just 15 days post-listing, ensuring massive passive fund inflows. This competitive edge over NYSE, where no equivalent accommodations exist, aligns with Elon Musk's precedent of listing Tesla on NASDAQ and SpaceX's confidential April 2026 SEC filing targeting a $1.75–2 trillion valuation with a June roadshow. Realistic challenges include an aggressive NYSE counteroffer for early S&P 500 access, a surprise direct listing elsewhere, or merger talks with xAI delaying the IPO; updated S-1 disclosures expected soon could refine these odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日NASDAQ 96%
その他 4.1%
NYSE <1%
$100,562 Vol.
$100,562 Vol.
NASDAQ
96%
その他
4%
NYSE
1%
NASDAQ 96%
その他 4.1%
NYSE <1%
$100,562 Vol.
$100,562 Vol.
NASDAQ
$23,522 Vol.
96%
その他
$58,130 Vol.
4%
NYSE
$18,910 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO).
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a NASDAQ listing for SpaceX at 95.5% implied probability, driven by the exchange's recent rule changes—implemented in early May 2026—allowing mega-IPOs like SpaceX immediate inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index just 15 days post-listing, ensuring massive passive fund inflows. This competitive edge over NYSE, where no equivalent accommodations exist, aligns with Elon Musk's precedent of listing Tesla on NASDAQ and SpaceX's confidential April 2026 SEC filing targeting a $1.75–2 trillion valuation with a June roadshow. Realistic challenges include an aggressive NYSE counteroffer for early S&P 500 access, a surprise direct listing elsewhere, or merger talks with xAI delaying the IPO; updated S-1 disclosures expected soon could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO).
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 25, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
音量
$100,562マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO).
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a NASDAQ listing for SpaceX at 95.5% implied probability, driven by the exchange's recent rule changes—implemented in early May 2026—allowing mega-IPOs like SpaceX immediate inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index just 15 days post-listing, ensuring massive passive fund inflows. This competitive edge over NYSE, where no equivalent accommodations exist, aligns with Elon Musk's precedent of listing Tesla on NASDAQ and SpaceX's confidential April 2026 SEC filing targeting a $1.75–2 trillion valuation with a June roadshow. Realistic challenges include an aggressive NYSE counteroffer for early S&P 500 access, a surprise direct listing elsewhere, or merger talks with xAI delaying the IPO; updated S-1 disclosures expected soon could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO).
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO.
If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution.
If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins.
The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$100,562マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a NASDAQ listing for SpaceX at 95.5% implied probability, driven by the exchange's recent rule changes—implemented in early May 2026—allowing mega-IPOs like SpaceX immediate inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index just 15 days post-listing, ensuring massive passive fund inflows. This competitive edge over NYSE, where no equivalent accommodations exist, aligns with Elon Musk's precedent of listing Tesla on NASDAQ and SpaceX's confidential April 2026 SEC filing targeting a $1.75–2 trillion valuation with a June roadshow. Realistic challenges include an aggressive NYSE counteroffer for early S&P 500 access, a surprise direct listing elsewhere, or merger talks with xAI delaying the IPO; updated S-1 disclosures expected soon could refine these odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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