Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants as frontrunners for the second-best AI model by end-June, with 43.5% implied probability, driven by their current dominance of the top two spots on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (1504 and 1500 ELO as of March 26). Anthropic's February releases markedly boosted coding and reasoning capabilities, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 ELO at #3) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 high (1484 at #6), yet traders anticipate OpenAI or Google launching superior large language models in Q2, potentially claiming #1 while leaving Claude as a resilient #2. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 ELO at #4) and DeepSeek's open models trail amid narrower vote confidence. Watch for developer conference announcements and fresh benchmark evaluations through June.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Anthropic 44%
OpenAI 21%
Google 20%
DeepSeek 8.3%
$331,334 Vol.
$331,334 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
44%
OpenAI
21%
20%
DeepSeek
8%
xAI
7%
美団
1%
アリババ
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
ムーンショット
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 44%
OpenAI 21%
Google 20%
DeepSeek 8.3%
$331,334 Vol.
$331,334 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$3,991 Vol.
44%
OpenAI
$30,967 Vol.
21%
$2,117 Vol.
20%
DeepSeek
$244,780 Vol.
8%
xAI
$10,761 Vol.
7%
美団
$30,445 Vol.
1%
アリババ
$1,219 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$858 Vol.
<1%
ムーンショット
$1,646 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,549 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants as frontrunners for the second-best AI model by end-June, with 43.5% implied probability, driven by their current dominance of the top two spots on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (1504 and 1500 ELO as of March 26). Anthropic's February releases markedly boosted coding and reasoning capabilities, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 ELO at #3) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 high (1484 at #6), yet traders anticipate OpenAI or Google launching superior large language models in Q2, potentially claiming #1 while leaving Claude as a resilient #2. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 ELO at #4) and DeepSeek's open models trail amid narrower vote confidence. Watch for developer conference announcements and fresh benchmark evaluations through June.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
音量
$331,334終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants as frontrunners for the second-best AI model by end-June, with 43.5% implied probability, driven by their current dominance of the top two spots on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (1504 and 1500 ELO as of March 26). Anthropic's February releases markedly boosted coding and reasoning capabilities, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 ELO at #3) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 high (1484 at #6), yet traders anticipate OpenAI or Google launching superior large language models in Q2, potentially claiming #1 while leaving Claude as a resilient #2. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 ELO at #4) and DeepSeek's open models trail amid narrower vote confidence. Watch for developer conference announcements and fresh benchmark evaluations through June.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$331,334終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants as frontrunners for the second-best AI model by end-June, with 43.5% implied probability, driven by their current dominance of the top two spots on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (1504 and 1500 ELO as of March 26). Anthropic's February releases markedly boosted coding and reasoning capabilities, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 ELO at #3) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 high (1484 at #6), yet traders anticipate OpenAI or Google launching superior large language models in Q2, potentially claiming #1 while leaving Claude as a resilient #2. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 ELO at #4) and DeepSeek's open models trail amid narrower vote confidence. Watch for developer conference announcements and fresh benchmark evaluations through June.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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