Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アンソロピック 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
バイドゥ <1%
$16,222,838 Vol.
$16,222,838 Vol.
2026/03/31
いいえ
OpenAI
いいえ
バイドゥ
いいえ
xAI
いいえ
ムーンショット
いいえ
Meituan
いいえ
アンソロピック
はい
アリババ
いいえ
Z.ai
いいえ
DeepSeek
いいえ
ミストラル
いいえ
アンソロピック 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
バイドゥ <1%
$16,222,838 Vol.
$16,222,838 Vol.
2026/03/31
$1,196,016 Vol.
いいえ
OpenAI
$1,653,187 Vol.
いいえ
バイドゥ
$3,141,144 Vol.
いいえ
xAI
$1,261,862 Vol.
いいえ
ムーンショット
$1,424,813 Vol.
いいえ
Meituan
$1,201,321 Vol.
いいえ
アンソロピック
$1,753,531 Vol.
はい
アリババ
$1,225,712 Vol.
いいえ
Z.ai
$1,263,181 Vol.
いいえ
DeepSeek
$1,481,355 Vol.
いいえ
ミストラル
$620,715 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
音量
$16,222,838終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$16,222,838終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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