NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has detected no bolides with impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater in 2026 so far, despite a record surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society in Q1—over 2,000 sightings, but all under 1 kt based on preliminary satellite data. The Sentry impact monitoring system lists only two negligible near-Earth objects ((2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)) with 2026 approach probabilities below 4e-5 and negative Palermo scales, posing no realistic threat. Trader consensus at 57.5% for "No" aligns with historical CNEOS bolide data showing confirmed >=5 kt airbursts rarer than modeled annual expectations of ~1 globally, adjusted for three months elapsed without incident and inherent detection uncertainties over remote oceans. Continuous US Space Force sensor monitoring will provide updates throughout the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$276,925 Vol.
$276,925 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$276,925 Vol.
$276,925 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has detected no bolides with impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater in 2026 so far, despite a record surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society in Q1—over 2,000 sightings, but all under 1 kt based on preliminary satellite data. The Sentry impact monitoring system lists only two negligible near-Earth objects ((2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)) with 2026 approach probabilities below 4e-5 and negative Palermo scales, posing no realistic threat. Trader consensus at 57.5% for "No" aligns with historical CNEOS bolide data showing confirmed >=5 kt airbursts rarer than modeled annual expectations of ~1 globally, adjusted for three months elapsed without incident and inherent detection uncertainties over remote oceans. Continuous US Space Force sensor monitoring will provide updates throughout the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$276,925終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has detected no bolides with impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater in 2026 so far, despite a record surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society in Q1—over 2,000 sightings, but all under 1 kt based on preliminary satellite data. The Sentry impact monitoring system lists only two negligible near-Earth objects ((2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)) with 2026 approach probabilities below 4e-5 and negative Palermo scales, posing no realistic threat. Trader consensus at 57.5% for "No" aligns with historical CNEOS bolide data showing confirmed >=5 kt airbursts rarer than modeled annual expectations of ~1 globally, adjusted for three months elapsed without incident and inherent detection uncertainties over remote oceans. Continuous US Space Force sensor monitoring will provide updates throughout the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$276,925終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has detected no bolides with impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater in 2026 so far, despite a record surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society in Q1—over 2,000 sightings, but all under 1 kt based on preliminary satellite data. The Sentry impact monitoring system lists only two negligible near-Earth objects ((2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)) with 2026 approach probabilities below 4e-5 and negative Palermo scales, posing no realistic threat. Trader consensus at 57.5% for "No" aligns with historical CNEOS bolide data showing confirmed >=5 kt airbursts rarer than modeled annual expectations of ~1 globally, adjusted for three months elapsed without incident and inherent detection uncertainties over remote oceans. Continuous US Space Force sensor monitoring will provide updates throughout the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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