Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for no meteor airburst equivalent to 5 kilotons TNT or greater in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system listing zero potential impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) through the year. Historical bolide data indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, with detection biased toward brighter fireballs over landmasses, yet early 2026's reported surge in U.S. fireballs—including a 7-ton event over Ohio on March 17 releasing under 1 kiloton—failed to meet the threshold. Preliminary Vera C. Rubin Observatory data from recent weeks uncovered 11,000 new asteroids, including 33 NEOs, bolstering surveillance without revealing threats. Upcoming CNEOS fireball analyses and continued NEO tracking could refine remaining-year odds amid inherent detection uncertainties.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$276,925 Vol.
$276,925 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$276,925 Vol.
$276,925 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for no meteor airburst equivalent to 5 kilotons TNT or greater in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system listing zero potential impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) through the year. Historical bolide data indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, with detection biased toward brighter fireballs over landmasses, yet early 2026's reported surge in U.S. fireballs—including a 7-ton event over Ohio on March 17 releasing under 1 kiloton—failed to meet the threshold. Preliminary Vera C. Rubin Observatory data from recent weeks uncovered 11,000 new asteroids, including 33 NEOs, bolstering surveillance without revealing threats. Upcoming CNEOS fireball analyses and continued NEO tracking could refine remaining-year odds amid inherent detection uncertainties.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$276,925終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for no meteor airburst equivalent to 5 kilotons TNT or greater in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system listing zero potential impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) through the year. Historical bolide data indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, with detection biased toward brighter fireballs over landmasses, yet early 2026's reported surge in U.S. fireballs—including a 7-ton event over Ohio on March 17 releasing under 1 kiloton—failed to meet the threshold. Preliminary Vera C. Rubin Observatory data from recent weeks uncovered 11,000 new asteroids, including 33 NEOs, bolstering surveillance without revealing threats. Upcoming CNEOS fireball analyses and continued NEO tracking could refine remaining-year odds amid inherent detection uncertainties.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$276,925終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for no meteor airburst equivalent to 5 kilotons TNT or greater in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system listing zero potential impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) through the year. Historical bolide data indicate such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, with detection biased toward brighter fireballs over landmasses, yet early 2026's reported surge in U.S. fireballs—including a 7-ton event over Ohio on March 17 releasing under 1 kiloton—failed to meet the threshold. Preliminary Vera C. Rubin Observatory data from recent weeks uncovered 11,000 new asteroids, including 33 NEOs, bolstering surveillance without revealing threats. Upcoming CNEOS fireball analyses and continued NEO tracking could refine remaining-year odds amid inherent detection uncertainties.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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