Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55.5% implied probability against the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips—by December 31, 2026, driven by the complete absence of active Level 3 alerts as of late March, per official CDC surveillance. Recent Level 2 notices for poliovirus circulation in over 20 countries, meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and chikungunya in Mayotte highlight elevated risks but fall short of Level 3 thresholds requiring widespread, severe outbreaks with limited precautions. Surging U.S. measles cases (over 1,500 in 2026) and global dengue trends add uncertainty, yet no escalations have materialized; traders await flu season surveillance and epidemiological updates from CDC and WHO that could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$96,223 Vol.
$96,223 Vol.
はい
$96,223 Vol.
$96,223 Vol.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55.5% implied probability against the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips—by December 31, 2026, driven by the complete absence of active Level 3 alerts as of late March, per official CDC surveillance. Recent Level 2 notices for poliovirus circulation in over 20 countries, meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and chikungunya in Mayotte highlight elevated risks but fall short of Level 3 thresholds requiring widespread, severe outbreaks with limited precautions. Surging U.S. measles cases (over 1,500 in 2026) and global dengue trends add uncertainty, yet no escalations have materialized; traders await flu season surveillance and epidemiological updates from CDC and WHO that could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問